Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it will leave interest rates unchanged, amid a softening labor market and growing uncertainty over the war in Iran.

Fed policymakers voted to leave the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at its current range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The move follows the central bank's decision to hold rates steady in January after three successive 25-basis-point rate cuts in September, October and December to close out last year.

Economic data showing a slowdown in the labor market, inflation continuing to run hotter than the Fed's 2% target and the unrest in Iran prompted policymakers to continue to pause rate cuts.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 in favor of leaving rates unchanged, with the lone dissent by Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who was in favor of a 25 basis point cut.

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The FOMC's statement noted that economic indicators suggest the economy is expanding at a solid pace, with low levels of job gains and somewhat elevated inflation.

It also noted that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook "remains elevated" and that the "implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain." 

Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said at a press conference announcing the decision that the slowdown in hiring reflects lower demand for labor as well as a decline in immigration. He added that inflation readings remain elevated in the goods sector due to the effects of tariffs raising consumer prices.

Powell said that the current 3.5% to 3.75% range for the benchmark federal funds rate is within a range of neutral. He added that it's too soon to tell what the impact of the conflict in the Middle East will be on the economy, and that policymakers will continue to monitor economic data as they consider adjusting monetary policy. 

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What does it mean for the economy?

The Fed chair was asked whether the central bank will look through the inflation that stems from higher oil prices due to the conflict in the Middle East. Powell said the Fed needs to see goods inflation slow as the one-time price increase from tariffs flows through the system before it can consider the new energy inflation.

"The question of whether we look through the energy inflation doesn't really arise until we have kind of checked that box," he said. "It is kind of standard learning that you look through energy shocks, but that's always been on inflation expectations remaining well-anchored."

Powell noted that total core inflation is at about 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target, and he added that "some big chunk of that, between a half and three-quarters, is actually tariffs."

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Another question posed to Powell was regarding whether the impact of the Middle East conflict on gas prices could spur increased domestic production.

"If you ask oil companies about doing more drilling, though, they're going to want to see a consistent rise in oil prices from where they were before the build up for the war, and they're going to want to believe that that's going to be persistent for a fairly long time," he explained. "I wouldn't say there's much of that happening now, but some of that could happen over time."

Powell discussed concerns about the labor market given the trend of sluggish job growth and said "that looks like that's about what the economy needs in terms of dealing with very, very low and non-existent really growth in the labor force, which we've never had in our history."

"So you've got kind of a zero employment growth equilibrium. Now, that's a balance, but I would say it does have a feel of downside risk and it's not kind of a really comfortable balance," he said, adding that it's something the central bank watches closely.

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The chair was asked about how the Fed's independence relates to the central bank's ability to address affordability concerns.

"Independence is what allows us to do our jobs, and stable prices is half of our mandate, it's one of our two mandates – maximum employment being the other," he said. "look at every advanced economy that looks anything like the U.S., anywhere in the world in a market economy, in a democracy, and you'll see central bank independence. It looks a lot like, and in some cases stronger than what we have."

"It's critical that we have that so that we can do the things that we need to do to preserve price stability. And it's just an accepted, standard practice, and I think has a lot of support certainly in Congress where our oversight is," Powell added.

What's next for Powell as his term winds down?

Powell's term as chairman expires in late May, though he may choose to serve out the remainder of his term as a Fed governor that runs until January 2028. 

FOX Business' Edward Lawrence asked Powell what he plans to do if his successor, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, isn't confirmed by the end of Powell's term, as well as whether he plans to leave the central bank before the Trump administration's Justice Department probe into whether he misled Congress concludes.

"If my successor is not confirmed by the end of my term as chair, I would serve as chair pro tem until he is confirmed. That is what the law calls for, that's what we've done on several occasions, including involving me, and that's we're going to do in this situation," Powell said.

"On the question of whether I will leave while the investigation is ongoing, I have no intention of leaving the board until the investigation is well and truly over with transparency and finality," Powell explained. 

"On the question of whether I will then continue to serve as governor after my term ends, and after the investigation is over, I have not made that decision yet, and I will make that decision based on what I think is best for the institution and for the people we serve," Powell added. "I'm not going to have anymore to say on those issues, by the way."

What experts are saying

"The Fed will remain in ‘wait-and-see’ mode for now, pending clarity on developments in the Middle East. Despite higher inflation forecasts the FOMC retains an easing bias, with a narrow majority on the committee expecting cuts to resume this year," said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi sector fixed income investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. "We still see room for two ‘normalization’ cuts in 2026, although their timing remains dependent on the length of the conflict."

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Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, said that the "economic cost of surging energy prices is not yet known, so it's understandable that Chair Powell struck a cautious tone about future rate cuts."

"Because oil-supply shocks lead to a significant slowing in growth, there will likely be more room for policy easing than many people now expect," Zentner added.