Trade deal might not happen in 2019, strategist says

By Trade WarFOXBusiness

The trade war has officially begun, policy strategist says

Greg Valliere, AGF Investments Chief U.S. policy strategist, believes since China retaliated against Trump's tariffs, the trade war has ramped up.

On Friday, China slapped new tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods. This is the latest in the ongoing trade war as the United States prepares to place tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods in September.

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White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said China’s decision is relatively small.

“Seventy-five billion dollars worth of tariffs in terms of what the combined $30 trillion economy is not something for the stock market to worry about and we’re cool here,” he told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo.

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However, AGF Investments chief U.S. policy strategist Greg Valliere disagrees with that thought process.

"Let's not sugarcoat it ... I think today, Aug. 23, begins a bigtime trade war in earnest," Valliere said on FOX Business' "Cavuto: Coast To Coast." "I think after today's developments with the Chinese retaliating, with Trump's incredible comments ordering U.S. companies to find alternatives to China, I think that after today, chances of getting a deal this year have dropped dramatically."

Chances of getting a deal this year have dropped dramatically.

Greg Valliere

Valliere said he thought, like most analysts, a deal would play out before the 2020 election, but now, he's thinking that's not likely.

"We may have to live with this kind of anxiety for quite some time," Valliere said. "It creates lots of winners and losers."

"We can live with it, but I would just raise one crucial word, and that word is uncertainty," he continued. "And I think that whether you're a farmer or whether you're a small business in the Midwest relying on component parts for what you manufacture, I think a lot of people are going to have uncertainty for quite some time to come."

I think a lot of people are going to have uncertainty for quite some time to come.

Greg Valliere

He believes if President Trump keeps escalating the trade war with China, the Fed will have to continue to cut rates, which was Trump's major priority to begin with.

"I think after today, more rate cuts are now a certainty," Valliere said.

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FOX Business' Jonathan Garber and Julia Limitone contributed to this report.

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