Fed sounds dovish note on interest rates: Why you should care

By The FedFOXBusiness

The potential impact of the Fed adopting a dovish tone

Sit Fixed Income Senior Vice President Bryce Doty on Federal Reserve policy and U.S. trade negotiations with China.

The Federal Reserve has taken a step back from interest rate hikes so far this year, repeatedly sounding a dovish approach to monetary policy in the face of growing fears about an economic slowdown.

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But while that decision has been cheered by investors and Wall Street, what does it mean, exactly, for your own personal finances?

The benchmark federal funds rate – which policymakers at the U.S. central bank voted to raise four times in 2018 – can affect consumers by increasing borrowing costs. That includes things like auto loan rates and 30-year-fixed mortgage rates; even a slightly lower rate for both can mean thousands of dollars in savings for consumers.

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For consumers, that can be both good and bad news, according to Curt Long, the chief economic and vice president of research at the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions.

“It kind of depends on which side of the fence they’re on,” he told FOX Business on Thursday. “If you’re potentially going to be a borrower in the near future, the fact that the Fed seems determined to be patient, in their words, is probably good news. It means rates will probably stay lower than they would have otherwise. On the other hand, if you’re a saver, that might not be as good of news for you.”

That’s because some banks and credit unions will increase their savings rate during Fed hikes, making it a good chance for consumers to earn more on their savings.

The correlation isn’t quite so direct, however: The Fed raises the cost of borrowing for banks, which in turn passes that along to consumers. Congress tasked the central bank in 1977 with promoting “maximum employment, production and purchasing power” by keeping the cost of goods stable and creating solid labor-market conditions.

One of the most potent tools in the Fed’s arsenal includes interest rates.

Typically, when policymakers are trying to spur additional consumer spending, they lower interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowing (during the financial recession in 2008, for instance, the Fed lowered it to effectively zero and did not raise it again until 2015). Conversely, to avoid inflation and cool the economy, it will raise rates to make it more expensive to borrow.

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Generally, the Fed tries to maintain a federal funds rate between 2 percent and 5 percent. In January, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to keep it steady at 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent -- and signaled they were unlikely to change it amid some geopolitical turmoil, like Brexit uncertainty and a U.S.-China trade war.

"We still see sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor conditions and inflation near 2 percent," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a press conference in January. "But the crosscurrents suggest a less favorable outlook."

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