Russian ruble makes almost full recovery despite western sanctions
Economics expert Anthony Kim argues Russia's recovery is not 'meaningful'
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Russia’s currency has almost fully recovered its value despite weeks of crippling sanctions from the West over the invasion of Ukraine.
"This is an ongoing process," Anthony Kim, a research fellow in economic freedom at the Heritage Foundation, told FOX Business. "For now, as markets are processing more and more information, and we see the conflict is getting prolonged rather than getting really intense and more negative."
"But this is not the end outcome," he stressed.
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The ruble has recovered some of its lost value, with $1 equal to around 83 RUB as of Thursday. The exchange rate prior to the invasion saw $1 equal to roughly 83.53 RUB, with the peak at around 139 RUB.
"There was an immediate shock or reaction from the Russian market and the markets outside Russia, which is why we saw this immediate legitimate panic and legitimate downturn," Kim explained. "And where we are now is a different kind of period."
FILE PHOTO: Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of Russia's Central Bank, speaks during an interview in Moscow, Russia, June 27, 2019. REUTERS/Evgenia Novozhenina//File Photo | Reuters
Initial panic following the implementation of sanctions led to Russian citizens trying to pull their money from the bank, which forced banks to then borrow heavily from the Bank of Russia to meet demand.
The Wall Street Journal argued that strict limits from Russia’s Central Bank on currency exchange, withdrawals and hard-currency transfers helped to rein in the wild fluctuations that initially spooked officials into shutting down trading on the Moscow Exchange for almost a month.
Russia also faced the danger of sovereign default but avoided that particular hurdle with a debt payment of roughly $117 million. Credit rating agency Moody's earlier this month put Russia on the second-lowest rung on the credit ladder, just above default.
Part of Russia’s advantage is that the ruble is not "really" a global currency, Kim noted, which creates the space to partially insulate itself against foreign market reactions, which might otherwise accelerate the loss of value.
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"I think it’s just part of the process … I don’t think this is any meaningful recovery, it’s an ongoing process," he said. "What’s more important and more critical is the next step."
Russia’s sale of oil and gas has also continued to dampen the impact of sanctions, which has prompted calls from Ukraine and its supporters to fully embargo Russian energy exports.
The U.S. and Britain have cut all Russian energy imports, and Poland is working to undo its own commitments. Other European countries, such as Germany, are trying to follow but face difficulties cutting reliance on their chief source of energy.
Russia’s economy is still experiencing pains from the sanctions that will likely intensify over the coming months, with inflation possibly reaching at least 20% this year and Russia’s GDP tracking to shrink by 15%.
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Janis Kluge, an economist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin, told the Post that the "psychological effect is very important."
"It’s very important what the population thinks about the health of the economy, and the ruble is one of the main indicators that every Russian knows," Kluge said.