Citing rapid expansion of the world market, Boeing (NYSE:BA) predicts a $4 trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years, complementing growing demand for air travel.
Passenger traffic is slated to grow at 5.1% annual rate over the long-term, with the world fleet expected to double by 2030, Boeing said in its annual Current Market Outlook released on Thursday in Paris. The jet maker forecasts 33,500 new passenger airplanes and freighters will be delivered by 2030.
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The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate, said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing for Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel including economic growth, world trade and liberalization all point to a healthy long-term demand.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Boeing warned that rising and volatile fuel prices will continue challenging the industry, a problem that has already forced many U.S. airlines such as Delta (NYSE:DAL) and American Airlines (NYSE:AMR) to slash capacity.
The single-aisle market will continue to see strong demand around the world and is expected to increase its share of the market, Boeing said. Fleet composition will likely alter significantly in the next 20 years with single-aisle jets making up 70%. As of 2010, single-aisle aircraft made up 62% of the market.
The jet maker predicts that growth in China, India and other emerging markets will lead to more balanced global airplane demand. Asia Pacific is expected to need the most new planes over the next 20 years, with some 11,450 jets, and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion, Boeing said.
North America and Europe will likely see strong demand for replacement airplanes as older jets are retired. Boeing said it predicts 94% of the European fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011.