The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will determine whether retailers will see a 30% increase or decrease in consumer spending this holiday season, according to a new survey by Jungle Scout.
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If former Vice President Joe Biden wins the 2020 election, just over half of all consumers say they will spend the same, while 14% say they will increase their purchases. Seventeen percent say they will shell out less.
Delving further into the data, 65% of Biden voters and 47% of Trump voters say they will spend the same after a Biden win. Some 22% of Biden voters said they would buy more, and 32% of Trump backers said they would spend less.
If Trump wins, about 53% of all consumers will spend the same while 17% expect to buy more. About 29% of Biden supporters said they would buy less, while 32% of Trump backers indicated they would purchase more.
“If Trump wins, I believe there will be major depression and I’ll need to save every penny for who knows how long,” one Biden voter revealed in the survey.
One of the incumbent's backers, however, countered by saying, “I think the economy will get better with President Trump.”
Other political influences on usually lucrative holiday shopping include the outcome of the U.S. Senate race, a new Supreme Court Justice and the possibility of a new coronavirus stimulus package.
Unfortunately, "the general election, especially the national election, always is a little bit of a drag on retail sales in general," 1-800-FLOWERS CEO Chris McCann said on an earnings call.
CFRA Senior Equity Analyst Camilla Yanushevsky projects that the shopping season will be "tepid at best."
"Our base case is that holiday retail sales will be flat, year-over year. This translates to total sales of $1.05 trillion in the months of November and December," Yanushevsky told FOX Business.
Her forecast assumes that no additional fiscal stimulus will be passed before year's end and that a resurgence of the coronavirus will not prompt widespread store reclosures, she said.