Why This Jobs Report Helps Democrats…in 2016

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September jobs report blows past expectations

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September jobs report blows past expectations

FBN’s Rich Edson breaks down the monthly jobs report.

Americans might not feel it. Some of them might not even believe it. And Republicans might continue dismissing it. But the reality is the job market is turning around. And I’m telling you, so are Democrats’ prospects. I’m not talking a month from now. I’m talking two years from now.

For now, I don’t think September’s surprising job surge will move either the president’s poll numbers or improve Democrats’ mid-term prospects. Maybe that’s because Americans’ generally lousy economic mood is kind of baked into the electoral cake. Come 2016, however? Let’s just say, very different cake.

It’s weird, because statistically the president has a good case to make now. It’s just not nearly “enough” of a compelling case. It shouldn’t be, and we shouldn’t all be feeling this bad. After all, as I’ve discussed this week, even before this latest news of 248,000 more Americans joining the labor force, the force of the economic data has been largely going the president’s way. And now with the unemployment rate at 5.9%, the lowest it’s been in six years, vulnerable Democratic candidates will no doubt make a case for “steady as she goes.”

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I suspect the facts of their case are strong. But as I’ve also reported, the basic thrust of their case remains weak. And much of that has to do with Americans still not feeling this recovery the country’s supposedly experiencing. The president is quite right to say things are better now than when he took office. Remember that the unemployment rate ticked up as high as 10% in early 2009.

No matter. Unlike other recoveries that have generally benefited the party holding power, or at least the White House, it’s not exactly playing out that way now. Much of it has to do with the quality of those jobs and the simple fact average hourly earnings remain soft. In fact, they slipped a penny in September and are up a meager 2% for the year, according to the Labor Department.


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