Martin Sorrell predicts bullish market ahead of GOP tax cuts
Bernstein stressed that he sees benefits from a smart redesign of the corporate tax code that lowered rates and closed loopholes. But the Trump plan, he said, is assuming unrealistic gains. The framework backed by the administration and Congressional Republican leaders puts more emphasis on cutting taxes for companies and could increase the budget deficit, which would possibly hurt long term economic growth.
Hassett said in a phone call with reporters Friday that he's "optimistic" that the possible economic growth generated from the plan will mean "it won't significantly add to the deficit" and could be revenue neutral after 10 years. His argument is that lower corporate tax rates would lead to more investments by companies in equipment and workers, which would increase productivity and incomes.
The White House report separately suggested that lower corporate rates could reduce the U.S. trade gap, since companies would have less of an incentive to book their profits overseas. The possible benefits of this weren't included in the reports estimated income growth, but the result would be faster growth for the U.S. gross domestic product. In the accounting for GDP, trade deficits subtract from growth.
Adam Looney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former Obama-era Treasury Department official, said that any additional gains would largely be contained in the GDP figures, since the amount of money being invested in the United States would not change much.
"Those are purely accounting measures, not real changes," Looney said. "It would be using a different yardstick."