Prediction markets favor Hassett, Warsh as Trump’s top picks for Fed chair
Jerome Powell is expected to complete his term as Fed chair in May 2026
Trump calls Fed Reserve Chair Jerome Powell a 'stiff'
President Donald Trump addresses the Fed rate cuts and inflation in a roundtable with business leaders.
Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi place the odds of President Donald Trump selecting Kevin Warsh to succeed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at 42%, a 27 percentage point increase this week.
Kevin Hassett remains the frontrunner to lead the world’s most powerful central bank, holding a 50% chance despite a 20-point drop.
The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little over $10.2 million.
TRUMP SAYS HE’S CHOSEN NEXT FED CHAIR AS AFFORDABILITY PRESSURES RISE
Christopher Waller’s probability has fallen to 6% on the Kalshi prediction market. (Kalshi)
Kalshi lets users bet real money on everything from politics and economic policy to sports and pop culture, transforming public sentiment into tradable market odds.
Trump said on Friday that his two leading candidates are former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
"Yes, I think he is. I think you have Kevin and Kevin. They're both – I think the two Kevins are great," Trump said. "I think there are a couple of other people that are great."
TRUMP SAYS WARSH, HASSETT ARE LEADING CONTENDERS FOR FED CHAIR PICK
Hassett, Trump's top economic advisor, has been a loyal defender of Trump's economic agenda and currently serves as the director of the White House's National Economic Council.
Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett has been widely viewed as a frontrunner for the top job at the Federal Reserve. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Hassett held two roles during the first Trump administration and advised Trump on economic policy during the 2024 presidential campaign.
Warsh, Hassett's contender with deep economic credentials, joined the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in 2006. At the time, the ex-Morgan Stanley banker was the youngest person to serve on the board.
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Kevin Warsh, former governor of the Federal Reserve, was previously a Morgan Stanley banker. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Warsh was among Trump's leading candidates to replace Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen in 2017. Trump ultimately appointed Powell to the role.
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More recently, he was considered a contender for Treasury secretary in the second Trump administration before the president landed on former hedge fund chief Scott Bessent.