It’s the end of the month. Check your 401(k). You might get a surprise. All you've heard about is the threat of recession, hyped up by a media that wants a downturn so the president loses in 2020. You've been bored to tears by "the inverted yield curve": That’s something else the media jumped on, even though most of the commentators hadn't a clue what it’s all about. And you've been alarmed by the trade war with China, which was surely going to hurt us badly.
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The surprise is that your 401(k) has weathered the storm, just like the stock market weathered the storm. As of now, we're just a couple of percentage points away from an all-time record high for the Dow industrials. We're 11 years into this stock market rally. I've been doing this for 40 years and I've never seen such a sustained move up.
There are several reasons for this: First is the strength of our economy. It really is an outstanding performer. We still have strong growth. Europe and Japan do not. I don't want to digress, but news came today that Italy's unemployment rate has moved up to 9.9 percent, and Germany is sliding into recession. Just saying.
And then there's the world turned upside down. Not here. Over there. We pay interest. They don't. Imagine that: over there, you lend money and you get no interest and you don't even get all your money back! No wonder money pours in here. And some of that money finds its way into our stock market -- into your 401(k).
Here's another fear that hasn't materialized: The threat to our economy from China trade tariffs. Remember the warnings: Oh, prices will rise. Consumers will be hurt. It hasn't worked out that way. Inflation has not ticked up. In fact, this Labor Day weekend we'll be paying the lowest gas prices in three years!
Have you ever seen the evening news lead with a story about America's economic strength? Nah, it’s always weakness. It won't change. The left hates him and will distort our economic performance in the hope our president loses next year.
Ignore it. They've lost their credibility. At this moment, your 401(k) is a better indicator of how well the Trump economy is really doing.