Analyst View: This Was Inevitable
Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has stepped down and the vice president has named a military council to run the country's affairs, state television said on Friday after 18 days of mass protests against his rule.
Below is reaction from analysts, economists and officials.
JULIEN BARNES-DACEY, MIDDLE EAST ANALYST, CONTROL RISKS
"It was inevitable. Mubarak's speech last night was so off message. I think the military elite had just lost the initiative. Huge questions remain as to where we go next, and it could be a tortuous path. There must be serious questions over how acceptable Suleiman will be given his support for Mubarak. I think he has to come up with sessions very quickly for very comprehensive reform. There will be a feeling of jubilation on the streets in the very short term, but I think if they do not seek change protests could still continue."
DAVID RESLER, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES, NEW YORK:
"I think it's clear he's been forced into taking the action that everybody was waiting for yesterday."I think it's really too early to tell. As always the case in these transitions, a lot of it depends on what shape those transitions take. You could carve out a wide variety of paths that would evolve in Egypt -- all of which would have different impacts on the market. Near-term, the markets are likely to be relieved, at least temporarily, that we've come to some sort of resolution on his tenure, but I think it remains to be seen who fills this void and how fast the void is filled. How that evolves will effect things like oil prices, global interest rates -- all kinds of stuff. If it evolves in an orderly fashion without civil unrest, then I think the markets will react accordingly and it probably won't have adverse consequences."
VASSILI SEREBRIAKOV, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO, NEW YORK:
"It should be positive for risk appetite. But the dollar reaction so far has been mixed. It had some impact on currency markets over the past days, but I don't think the Middle East unrest was the key theme. It remains to be seen what kind of impact they'll have on equity markets. That's probably where the foreign-exchange reaction is going to go. The currency market is taking cues from equities at this point."
FRANK LESH, BROKER AND FUTURES ANALYST FUTURE PATH TRADING
"Initially, I think it takes some of the fear away of government reaction and violence for the moment, but the uncertainty of what's to come is still there.
"We know he's gone, but does this change volatility on the Egypt social unrest? Not really."Clearly for the moment, it's still a government in disarray."
KEITH HEMBRE, CHIEF ECONOMIST, FIRST AMERICAN FUNDS, MINNEAPOLIS:
"I wouldn't expect a sudden major escalation in the (stock) market as a result of that. Again, it's very difficult to argue it's been a significant factor holding back the market.
"Potentially, you can see some further downward adjustment in oil prices, which have been kind of trending down here the last couple of days."
"Treasuries backed off a couple of basis points from this morning's rally. There certainly is less reason to buy the safety of U.S. government securities if Mubarak is giving the people what they want. Traders are keeping their eyes on crude oil, but nothing much happening there."GARY THAYER, CHIEF MACROSTRATEGIST, WELLS FARGO, ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI:
"It looks like the stock market is taking the news well. One thing that has weighed on investor sentiment is that the price of oil would go up in the case of political turmoil and Mubarak's leaving reduces that possibility. Crude oil prices declined on the news and we're seeing gold come off a little bit. Treasuries are up a little bit."
JAY SUSKIND, SENIOR VICE PREIDENT AT DUNCAN-WILLIAMS IN JERSEY CITY, NEW JERSEY
"Initially you'll see a pop in the market and oil come off on the hope that this prevents violence in the streets of Egypt. But as we go forward, we'll start wondering what's next for the country.Does this mean more or less stability? There are a lot of new questions. But for the moment, there's some firmness and the gut reaction is to put a little bid to the market. There won't be anything wild as a result of this in stocks. It wasn't a huge surprise, and the market has been pretty stable lately and there isn't much volume.
This is more of an emotional trade. Egypt has been in the news for so long that there's no shock here. Any gains we see will be relief trades.
"Next week, from a geopolitical standpoint, if it stays calm over there and there's a transfer of power, it should fade into the background. But if there's a sense that Egypt won't go in a semi-democratic state, and that the new power is unfriendly to the West, we could see some nerves on that. There's still a lot of uncertainty, along with some cautious optimism."