A Stock Play to Help You Sleep at Night

Let’s take a look at Plug Power (NASDAQ:PLUG).

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If you watch the FOX Business Network, you probably have heard me talk about this one a lot, particularly on Varney & Co. There is a lot of action in this fuel-cell space. Again, you’re talking industry and governments. They continue to be really big pushers behind alternative energy sources.

News came out this week that China would make 30% of all its new government vehicles electric – well, that sparked even more excitement in this space.

Also this week, FBR Capital Markets started covering the stock with an "outperform" rating and a price target of $8. I've always liked the stock. It's a classic momentum name, and in part because of the limited coverage by larger Wall Street firms.

Last year, the ball got rolling in May with a million-dollar backlog. Then, from May to October, another $11 million -- and from October to December another $17.8 million. Most of these contracts cover five years, and now management can boast of major food companies including Sysco (NYSE:SYY) and Kroger (NYSE:KR), retailers including Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Lowes (NYSE:LOW) and automakers including Mercedes and BMW, whose Spartanburg, South Carolina plant has more than 300 fuel-cell vehicles.

The stock should remain volatile, but I agree it could be an $8.00 stock sooner than later.

And now let’s look at W.R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE:WRB).

It is a defensive play, but long term this thing has been a juggernaut.

It’s really not well known, but this commercial property casualty insurance company has been around since 1967, when a couple of buddies at Harvard through-in together $2,500. The return on equity from 2003 to June of this year has crushed all of its larger, better-known rivals.

The company operates in three segments: domestic insurance, international insurance and global reinsurance.

It's a very well-run business that over the years, when the industry got hit really hard by catastrophe, saw no loss -- and sometimes even had a surplus.

For example, after Super Storm Sandy the industry lost on average 4.3%, while W.R. Berkley had a surplus of almost 1%.

Katrina - the industry lost 13.8% -- WRB saw a surplus of almost 1%.

That execution, in fact, has gotten even better. There have really been no major casualties or calamities recently, so it’s helped a lot.

In the past four quarters, management posted results that beat the Street by 3%, 4%, 10% -- and more recently 27%. Consequently, fiscal year 2015 consensus has climbed, now the Street is looking for $3.87, a couple of months ago it was $3.57.

You want to sleep at night?  You’re a little worried about volatility? This stock is changing hands at one times book, and less than 1 times sales, and PE ratio of just 12.

Management recently hiked the annual dividend, so now you’re going to get paid $0.44 to hide out, if that’s what you’re going to do. But if history is any indication,  you could also get paid big time with this if you have some patience.

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