By Emma Thomasson
ZURICH (Reuters) - The rogue trade disaster at UBS
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UBS has been grooming Sergio Ermotti, the former deputy chief executive of UniCredit
Gruebel said on Sunday that "the buck stops with me" and he would "bear the consequences" of the shock $2.3 billion trading loss that was discovered last week, adding the news would influence the future strategy of the investment bank
A UBS insider said bearing the consequences did not necessarily imply Greubel would leave immediately, but he might be thinking of forgoing his annual bonus again, speeding up restructuring or making other senior management changes.
Gruebel, a gruff 67-year-old German who previously ran Credit Suisse
He initially indicated he would only stay in the job for a couple of years to get the bank back on its feet but suggested recently that he could stick around at least until former Bundesbank boss Axel Weber takes over as chairman in 2013.
As part of his strategy to restore the former glory of the investment bank, Gruebel -- himself a former bond trader -- promoted Carsten Kengeter to lead the business.
"We estimate that the investment banking chief Carsten Kengeter ... will be sacrificed after this scandal," said Kepler analyst Dirk Becker.
But that is unlikely to be enough. Pressure will mount on Gruebel, especially if an internal investigation launched on Sunday reveals systematic risk control failures.
"It doesn't seem so certain after the weekend that he will stay. If the internal controls show severe failings then he will probably have to go," said one Zurich trader.
UBS Honorary Chairman Nikolaus Senn said he did not believe Gruebel would be able to resist the pressure to step down: "I do not know how often Gruebel flew to London to ask the people in charge how the business was going," Senn said.
"Arrogant and irresponsible managers like Oswald Gruebel must finally be replaced by people who have learnt the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis," the party said in a statement.
Even Christoph Blocher, a leading figure in the right-wing Swiss People's Party, said UBS should look for a replacement.
Helvea analyst Peter Thorne said Ermotti was definitely the frontrunner as UBS lacked few credible alternative candidates.
"We're hoping for great things from Ermotti to resize the business," he said. "He's got the background, he's a senior financial figure, Swiss and not tainted by the past problems of
The 51-year-old from the Italian-speaking Ticino region of Switzerland trumps possible alternative candidates Lukas Gaehwiler, CEO of UBS Switzerland, and Juerg Zeltner, CEO of Wealth Management, in terms of broad international experience.
At UBS for only five months, Ermotti has met key clients, taken charge of UBS's relationship with regulators in Europe and driven the bank's strategy of making sure its investment bankers and private client advisers work closely together.
While few outsiders are likely to be tempted by a move to the crisis-stricken bank, Hugo Baenziger, chief risk officer at Deutsche Bank
For TAKE A LOOK-UBS loses $2.3 bln in rogue trades, please
(Editing by Hans-Juergen Peters)