Jamie Dimon warns about biggest near-term risk to US economy

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon on Tuesday voiced concern about the consequences of an ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, as negotiations have so far failed to result in an agreement.

During Deutsche Bank’s Financial Services Conference in New York, Dimon said if trade negotiations fall through, the damage to the U.S. economy could be significant.

“Trade has gone from being a skirmish to being far more important than that,” Dimon said, as reported by CNBC. “If this goes south in a bad way, and you have other surprises, that could be part of the thing that changes confidence, changes peoples’ willingness to invest.”

Dimon added that businesses are beginning to think about moving supply lines, which would have negative consequences.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration raised its tariff rate on $200 billion worth of goods from China, which was met with retaliatory measures from Beijing. The president has threatened to place tariffs on an additional $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Dimon previously voiced concerns about what could happen if negotiations between the Trump administration and Beijing deteriorate during the company’s first quarter earnings call.

When asked about potential risks to U.S. economic growth, Dimon said a number of events could eventually contribute to a recession within the coming years, but added, the trade war represents a “bigger short-term risk.”

“Obviously at one point though there will probably be something, and yeah I think the bigger short-term risk would be something to go wrong in China, the trade issues in China,” Dimon said.


During an interview with FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo last month, Dimon said he didn’t see a recession on the horizon, noting that incomes are strong and the U.S. consumer is doing well, while companies are “in good shape.” Trade, once again, is the one risk he saw that could stop U.S. economic growth within the next year or two.