Florida – already the recipient of the largest number of out-of-state movers in the country – is likely to see its population boom while temporary provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act remain in effect.
According to upwardly revised population estimates from The Demographic Estimating Conference, growth in the Sunshine State will spike over the coming years.
A number of the tax law’s provisions, including the controversial $10,000 cap on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, are set to expire after 2025.
Those changes to the U.S. tax code have encouraged an increasing number of people to move – taking their cash to lower-tax states like Florida. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that while Florida received more movers than any other state last year (net domestic migration of 132,602) – and high-tax New York’s outflows to the Sunshine State were the highest.
Over the coming three years, experts expect more than 300,000 people to move to Florida, each year. And while births and deaths obviously contribute to population changes, researchers say net migration will be primarily responsible for growth.
“Between April 1, 2018 and April 1, 2024, population growth is expected to average 330,605 net new residents per year (906 per day), representing a compound growth rate of 1.53 percent over this six‐year time horizon,” researchers wrote. “These increases are analogous to adding a city slightly larger than Orlando every year.”
For the current year, Florida’s population is expected to increase by 332,637 people.
Between 2020 and 2021, it’s estimated the population will grow by 324,025 people, and 314,977 the following year.
For the 2022-2023 year, estimates are for 305,560; 294,727 for 2023-2024 and 284,673 for the following year.
Beyond 2025, estimates cool into the 250,000-270,000 range.
Experts have told FOX Business that an exodus of individuals from high-tax states like New York, to low-tax states like Florida, is likely to accelerate over the coming years – though it has been underway for those who were proactive in their planning since the new tax law was announced.
The highest recorded level of population growth in Florida since 2003 was experienced in 2017, according to The Demographic Estimating Conference.
Individuals earning $650,000 can save more than $69,700 in taxes per year by moving from New York to Florida.
As previously reported by FOX Business, an influx of residents can provide a huge boost to Florida’s economy. The Sunshine State drew in a net influx of about $17.7 billion in adjusted gross income in 2016 thanks to people who moved in.