Wait, it gets worse: The IRS expects 4.6 million fewer people will get money back. Four million will pay more!
Lower refunds. Fewer refunds. Millions pay more. If you've watched this program, you'll know why: Tax reform did away with some tax deductions. OK we've got that.
So now what happens?
1) The economy doesn't get the stimulus that it got at tax time last year. When all those big refunds went out a year ago, the economy got a bounce. It won't get much of a bounce this year.
2) The economies of Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada and other low-tax states, actually get a boost. The way it works out is a million-dollar-a-year guy in those states does get a big refund? The stimulus stays! But in New Jersey, New York, California and others, it goes away. Low-tax states win big.
3) Politics: Wherever state taxes are high, President Trump becomes even less popular than he is now. The folks in New Jersey blame him for their tax trouble. Eventually, they may figure out that it’s their own states’ fault, but they're so mired in contempt for this president it may take a while.
4) The tax exodus will accelerate. Come April 15, millions of people will be doing the tax calculation and conclude it’s just not worth sticking around to be financially abused. When they realize that living in, say, New Jersey, it costs them tens of thousands of extra tax dollars, the moving vans will do a roaring business.
5) Will the Democrats' war on wealth be popular with wealthy people? The coastal elites are in love with Democrats … voted left. Will that continue? Socialism isn't quite so much fun when it’s your ox that’s being gored, over and over again!
So let’s wrap this up: Refunds down, high-tax states hurting, the tax exodus accelerating.
At some point reason prevails: You can't keep bashing success. Don't expect successful people to stay put.