US job growth likely rose in February in rebound from slump
Economists have forecast that job growth reached 182,000 last month
U.S. payrolls are expected to show a sizable increase in non-farm hiring in February compared to the prior month.
Declining cases of COVID-19 and consumer spending boosted by government aid checks contributed to a tenative recovery.
Economists have forecast that job growth reached 182,000 last month, according to Refinitiv.
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Yet with the nation still 10 million jobs short of its pre-pandemic level, monthly hiring would need to significantly accelerate to bring relief to the many people who remain laid off, especially at restaurants, hotels, entertainment venues and other areas of the hospitality industry that are far from recovered.
The unemployment rate is predicted to have remained steady at 6.3%.
One year into the pandemic, most analysts are growing more optimistic that hiring will accelerate in the coming months, with the economy strengthening and gauges of consumer spending and manufacturing rising. Americans as a whole have accumulated a huge pile of savings after having slashed spending on travel, movie tickets and visits to bars and restaurants. Much of that money is expected to be spent once most people feel comfortable about going out.
POWELL SAYS INFLATION COULD SEE TEMPORARY SPIKE, BUT PLEDGES FED WILL BE PATIENT
Nearly all of President Biden's $1.9 trillion economic rescue package looks likely to win approval in Congress in the coming weeks. It would provide, among other things, $1,400 relief checks to most adults, an additional $400 in weekly unemployment aid and another round of aid to small businesses.
With so much money being pumped into the economy, Oxford Economics now forecasts that growth will reach 7% for all of 2021, which would be the fastest calendar-year expansion since 1984. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the nation will add a substantial 6.2 million jobs this year, though that wouldn't be nearly enough to restore employment to pre-pandemic levels.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought to assuage concerns on Thursday — without success, based on sharp selloffs in the stock and bond markets — when he suggested that any meaningful rise in inflation would likely prove temporary and that the Fed would be in no hurry to raise its benchmark short-term rate.
ANOTHER 745K AMERICANS FILED FOR UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS LAST WEEK
Nor did Powell offer any hint that the Fed would act to push back against a surge in the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has jumped from about 0.9% last year to 1.5% late Thursday. Still, Powell sounded some optimistic notes. Citing in part the increasing distribution and administering of coronavirus vaccines, he said, “There's good reason to expect job creation to pick up in the coming months.”
Figures released Thursday by the Labor Department show that 745,000 Americans filed first-time jobless claims in the week ended Feb. 27, slightly lower than the 750,000 forecast by Refinitiv economists. Last week's figure was revised up from 730,000 to 736,000.
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Other recent economic reports have suggested better times ahead. Americans sharply increased their spending at retail stores and restaurants in January, when the $600 relief checks were mostly distributed. Retail sales jumped 5.3%, after three months of declines.
Factory output also picked up that month and home sales have been on a tear for most of the past year, driven by low mortgage rates and the desire of many Americans for more space during the pandemic.
The Associated Press contributed to this article.