Moderna stock tanks on COVID vaccine delivery slowdown

Moderna expects to deliver between 700M and 800M doses of its COVID-19 vaccine in 2021, down from previous guidance of 800M to 1B doses

Shares of Moderna have plunged more than 15% in Thursday's trading session after the pharmaceutical giant cut its full fiscal year 2021 forecast for COVID-19 vaccine deliveries. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
MRNA MODERNA, INC. 329.63 +56.24 +20.57%

 The stock is on pace for the largest decrease since May of 2020. 

Moderna expects to deliver between 700 million and 800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses at the 100 µg dose level in 2021, down from the previous guidance of 800 million to 1 billion doses. 

"Key variables impacting output include longer delivery lead times for international shipments and exports that may shift deliveries to early 2022, temporary impact from expansion of fill/finish capacity and ramp up of product release to market," Moderna said in its third-quarter earnings release

Due to the delays and the prioritization of deliveries to low-income countries through COVAX and African Union, Moderna anticipates fiscal year 2021 product sales between $15 billion and $18 billion, down from previous guidance of $20 billion. 

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Moderna has committed to make up to 110 million doses of its vaccine available to the African Union, with 15 million doses expected to be delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021, 35 million doses in the first quarter of 2022 and up to 60 million doses in the second quarter of 2022, all offered at the company's lowest tiered price. 

The company recently built a state-of-the-art mRNA facility in Africa with the goal of producing up to 500 million doses of vaccines each year. The company anticipates investing up to $500 million in the facility, which is expected to include "drug substance manufacturing with the opportunity for fill/finish and packaging capabilities at the site."

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Moderna sold 208 million doses and 510 million doses for the three-month and nine-month periods ending Sept. 30, which generated $4.8 billion and $10.7 billion in sales, respectively. 

Total revenue was $5 billion for the three-month period, compared to $157 million a year ago, and $11.3 billion for the nine-month period, compared to $232 million a year ago. The company posted a three-month net profit of $3.3 billion and nine-month net profit of $7.3 billion, up from losses of $233 million and $474 million a year ago, respectively. 

Looking ahead at 2022, Moderna anticipates total sales in the range of $17 billion to $22 billion. The company has signed approximately $17 billion of advance purchase agreements (APAs) for delivery in 2022 and anticipates approximately $3 billion in options to be exercised under those agreements. Meanwhile, Moderna expects commercial booster market sales could be up to $2 billion in 2022.