Is Qlik Technologies, Inc. Stock Headed to $50?

With Qlik Technologies' shares falling from above $40 to around $38 during the recent market sell-off, it's a good time to look at the stock. One analyst has pegged a $50 12-month price target to the stock (via Barron's and Benzinga). Up about 32% from where shares are trading at the time of this writing, this outlook for the stock could suggest a pullback is providing a valuable buying opportunity. Is there any substance to this price target?

Qlik business intelligence software. Image source: Qlik Technologies.

Backing up his $50 price target for the stock, Deutsche bank analyst Karl Keirstead cites a number of reasons to be bullish on the stock. Here are some of his key points.

Industry demand is looking up Keirstead said in a note to investors that during a recent meeting with Qlik management, the company had "a more confident-than-expected tone." During the rest of the year, the analyst believes there won't be any "softness" in the market.

Qlik management "sounded bullish about its overall pipeline ....and about the large deal opportunities in particular," Keirstead noted.

Keirstead's notion that demand for Qlik's business is robust reflects sentiments shared during the company's most recent quarterly earnings release, when CEO Lars Bjork stated, "On a constant currency basis, we achieved accelerating license and total revenue growth."

Qlik's Sense platform is performing well The company's recently launched Qlik Sense analytics software is proving to be a boon for the company's business. Indeed, management said when it reported second-quarter results that one of the key drivers behind its accelerating license and total revenue growth on a constant currency basis was "increased momentum around Qlik Sense."

Qlik Sense focuses on self-service and visualization. Image source: Qlik Technologies.

Keirstead said management "sounded positive about Sense traction."

Investors shouldn't underestimate the potential of Qlik Sense as a catalyst for the company. Instead of serving as a substitute for QlikView, the product is both comprehensive in its own right and value-adding. In other words, Qlik Sense may appeal to existing customers already using QlikView and also to first-time Qlik customers. Essentially, Qlik Sense has broadened the appeal and attractiveness of Qlik's BI solutions.

QlikView is still performing stronglySome Qlik investors may have been concerned about demand for the company's primary revenue driver, QlikView. With QlikView 12 due in the second half of the year, it stands to reason there could be some potential customers waiting to sign any agreement until the newer version is released.

However, if there are any customers waiting for QlikView 12, it's looking like higher demand is offsetting any negative effects, according to Keirstead.

Management was "adamant that any demand 'air pocket' ahead of the launch of QlikView 12 in late 2015 is highly unlikely," Keirstead said. Of course, this shouldn't be a surprise to Qlik investors. Management said in the company's second-quarter earnings release there was "ongoing healthy demand for QlikView."

Keirstead's reasons to be bullish on Qlik Technologies at these levels make sense. The recent pullback in shares doesn't reflect any lack in execution or weakness in the underlying business. As demand for the company's core QlikView product and its newer Qlik Sense platform continues to be robust, Qlik shareholders have good reason to continue holding. And the pullback is significant enough that it may even be a good time to start a position in the stock.

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