At Iowa caucus, Independent voters could have big influence: Report

The number of actively registered Iowa Republicans and Democrats declined since the last election

Just days away from the first votes of the 2020 election in Iowa on Monday, new data shows Independent voters could have a large influence this year.

According to a new report from real estate brokerage firm Redfin – which analyzed voter registration data provided by the state – Independents are now the largest pool of Iowa voters.

The percent of registered Independents who actively vote in the state has risen to 37.7 percent from 35.3 percent in the previous election, according to the data.

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While the number of actively registered Democrats and Republicans dropped over the same time period –  by 24,000 individuals and 29,000 individuals, respectively – the number of Independent voters rose by 45,000 to 750,000.

Those trends could reflect that fewer people identify with the two major political parties.

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"Even though we can't predict exactly how the Iowa caucuses will pan out, the relatively consistent statewide increase in independent voters signifies both a shift in partisanship and migration patterns," Redfin lead economist Taylor Marr said. "There are some candidates who are more appealing to the independent voters, and Iowa's new caucus format could allow them to play a larger role in many swing counties. Purple counties could turn blue."

The state, which is always home to the first presidential caucus, has both a high number of registered voters and high voter turnout when compared with the rest of the nation.

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The most recent Fox News poll, conducted among likely Democratic primary voters, found former Vice President Joe Biden in the lead, with 26 percent. Biden was trailed by Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 23 percent and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (14 percent). Billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg took the fourth position, at 10 percent.

In the latest Iowa-specific poll from Monmouth University, Biden led Sanders 23 percent to 21 percent. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg was third at 16 percent, followed by Warren at 15 percent.

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