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A vast majority, 71 percent, think Trump will get re-elected in 2020, according to a March investor survey conducted by RBC Capital Markets Head of U.S. Equity Strategy Lori Calvasina. Only 24 percent of respondents think a Democrat will win, while 5 percent think a Republican other than Trump might win.
But if Trump does not get re-elected, investors have preferences as to which Democrat they would like to see voted in. Former Vice President Joe Biden, who has not yet announced a 2020 run, was the overwhelmingly preferred candidate. Sixty-seven percent of respondents told RBC Capital Markets that Biden would be the “most acceptable” candidate for the stock market. Six percent picked former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, while 5 percent chose New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren was voted the “least acceptable Democratic candidate for the stock market” by 51 percent of survey respondents, followed by Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 38 percent. Warren and Sanders received an overwhelming share of the votes in this category.
As of Thursday's close, the Dow was up nearly 44 percent since Trump's election, while the S&P 500 has gained more than 34 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is nearly 52 perecent higher.
The largest number of people expect yet-to-declare Biden to win his party’s nomination – at nearly 29 percent. Sanders followed at nearly 22 percent.
If Democrats do win the White House, investors think the health care, financials, energy and technology sectors will be most at risk.
Less than half of investors planned to make changes to their portfolio ahead of the election, though they had not yet done so. Sixty percent said they had no plans to make any adjustments.