Dow, S&P, Nasdaq soar as investors bet Fed is finished

The CME's FedWatch Tool is now forecasting no further rate hikes in 2023

Investors celebrated cooler-than-expected data on consumer inflation, driving the Dow Jones Industrial Average to its best day since Nov. 2, 2023, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 had the biggest gains since April 2023. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
I:DJI DOW JONES AVERAGES 40003.59 +134.21 +0.34%
SP500 S&P 500 5303.27 +6.17 +0.12%
I:COMP NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 16685.966005 -12.35 -0.07%

As tracked by the CME’s FedWatch Tool, 99.8% of market participants expect no further rate hikes this year and, in a surprising twist, over 33% are betting the first rate cut could come in March 2024 after the consumer price index was unchanged in October vs. the prior month, while rising 3.2% annually, less than economists expected and down from 3.7% previously. 

10-Yr Treasury Yield: 4.40% 

As stocks rallied, bond yields fell, with the 10-year Treasury slipping to 4.44%, the lowest since September. 

INFLATION COOLS MORE-THAN-EXPECTED

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
MSFT MICROSOFT CORP. 420.21 -0.78 -0.19%
NVDA NVIDIA CORP. 924.79 -18.80 -1.99%

Tech giants Microsoft and Nvidia hit fresh all-time highs, with annual gains now at 55% and 240%, respectively. These stocks have contributed to the 12% jump in the Nasdaq since its October lows. 

Nasdaq Composite

INFLATION BREAKDOWN: WHERE PRICES ARE RISING/FALLING THE MOST

Nvidia chips

Nvidia rolled out a new suite of AI chips, giving investors further confidence that it's cementing its dominance in the space. (I-Hwa Cheng/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

The chipmaker, already leading the artificial intelligence race, rolled out a new suite of AI chips, giving investors further confidence that it's cementing its dominance in the space. 

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Home Depot shares posted the best percentage gain since November 2022 after quarterly earnings beat expectations. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
HD THE HOME DEPOT INC. 344.21 +1.48 +0.43%

The home-improvement chain also narrowed its annual guidance, forecasting sales may decline by 4% less than a prior 5% dip forecast. 

Home Depot shares posted the best percentage gain since November 2022. (Getty Images: Staff Photo By Matt Stone/MediaNews Group/Boston Herald)

"We're looking at it this year, this period of moderation for home improvement spending, but couldn't feel better about the business and our operations overall" said CEO Ted Decker on the company’s earnings call. While he noted some softness in professional projects, tied to higher mortgage rates, other parts of the business are solid. "We see great engagement – engagement in seasonal goods, engagement with smaller projects," he noted. 

Ticker Security Last Change Change %
TGT TARGET CORP. 160.15 -0.51 -0.32%
WMT WALMART INC. 64.65 +0.64 +1.00%

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Wall Street will get more details on consumer spending with Target earnings on Wednesday and Walmart on Thursday.