Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) is starting to bounce back after its swift summertime correction. The stock has moved higher every day this week, and by Wednesday afternoon, it was trading 11% higher than when it bottomed out on Monday.
Investors have a long way to go before getting back to where Netflix was when it peaked in mid-June. We're talking about another 23% gain, so we're just a third of the way back since its summertime low. However, with back-to-back days of bullish analyst notes and momentum back in its corner, investors are starting to set aside the rough second quarter that sent the shares reeling in the first place last month.
Eye of the tiger
Ralph Schackart at William Blair chimed in with a bullish analyst note on Tuesday, arguing that the stock's correction since falling short of its second-quarter guidance is overdone. He feels that international growth for Netflix during the latter half of this year should be stronger than the lukewarm 7% gain in net subscriber additions that his fellow analysts are targeting relative to the first half of this year. He's not sugarcoating the miss, but he points out that Netflix has fallen short just 4 times out of the past 22 quarters. In other words, Netflix has a history of bouncing back after failing to live up to its public expectations. He is sticking to his outperform rating on the stock.
On Wednesday, it was Rob Sanderson at MKM Partners boosting his price target on the shares from $390 to $395. He also sees an opportunity in the summer sell-off, though he does feel that subscriber growth in the near term will be challenging. He looks all the way out to roughly 2025, when he sees Netflix earning $40 a share on 90 million domestic subscribers and 300 million international accounts. A lot will naturally have to go right for those ambitious goals to materialize, but Netflix is no stranger to defying the odds.
Netflix's second quarter was rough. Investors were rattled when Netflix fell a little more than a million subscribers short of the net adds that it was targeting for the second quarter. Netflix also fell slightly short of its revenue forecast for the period. Its outlook for the current quarter also left a lot to be desired. However, history has taught us that Netflix has historically bounced back with a big quarter the next time out.
Netflix shares continue to be one of this year's biggest winners, despite the swift sell-off over the past two months. With at least two Wall Street pros ringing the dinner bell and the shares rallying again, it seems as if the correction in the reborn market darling finally came to an end on Monday.
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