Health policy experts at the Brookings Institution said Thursday that they expect the independent Congressional Budget Office's analysis of House Republicans' health care bill to project a loss of health care coverage for at least 15 million people over ten years. "Estimates could be higher, but it's unlikely they will be significantly lower," the Brookings experts said. House Republicans' plan, released this week and titled the American Health Care Act, is expected to have a CBO score by the end of the week. The Brookings researchers noted a CBO estimate that repealing the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate alone would likely reduce the insured population by 15 million. Other factors should increase that number, the experts said, such as cuts to state Medicaid programs and changes to individual market subsidies, both laid out in House Republicans' "Trumpcare" plan. The bill could have some positive effects on insured populations, including its penalty for those who don't maintain continuous health care coverage, the experts said. But "it's plausible that the AHCA will increase the number of uninsured persons by more than 15 million, and unlikely that we'll see a number much less than 15 million from the CBO," the experts said. Health Care Select Sector SPDR has surged 9.5% over the last three months, compared with a 4.3% rise in the S&P 500 .
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