The stock market is always hard to predict, but it seems like 2016 has been even more of a head-scratcher than usual. After one of the worst starts to any year in history in January and February, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) now sits up an impressive 7.6 percent on the year. In fact, the S&P 500 has been consistently making new all-time highs for over a month now.
The markets unpredictable behavior has Wall Street analysts struggling to predict where the S&P 500 is headed next.
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BTIG analyst Katie Stockton believes the market is over-due for a pullback.
Initial support for the SPX is defined by its breakout point in the 2100-2135 area, but even a return to the 200-day moving average would not jeopardize the intermediate-term uptrend, Stockton explained.
The S&P 500s 20-day simple moving average currently sits at 2,048, meaning BTIG believes the market could dip roughly 6.5 percent and still stay in bull mode.
Argus, on the other hand, is much more optimistic. According to a new Argus report, bond prices indicate that the S&P 500 has 8 percent upside from its current level.
We note that a bear market has never begun with our fair value model indicating that stocks trade as a discount to bonds, Argus analysts wrote.
The S&P 500 opened the week by making yet another push to a brand new all-time high of 2193.49.
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