Eurozone wages rose at the fastest pace in more than two years during the three months to June, a sign inflation may be set to rise to the European Central Bank's target.
The 19-nation eurozone economy has grown more strongly than expected this year, shrugging off the uncertainty created by a series of elections in the Netherl ands, France and Germany that threatened but failed to yield gains for anti-euro nationalists. The ECB's economists now forecast the eurozone economy is on course for its best year since 2007, reducing the need for support from policy makers. Much as in the U.S., though, inflation has yet to show signs of a sustained rise toward the central bank's target, which is just under 2%.
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The missing element in the link between growth and inflation has been wages, which have grown more slowly that the ECB had expected.
"Nominal wages, which are a primary driver of inflation, are...lagging behind what one would've expected from such strong recovery across the board," said ECB President Mario Draghi in a news conference last week.
However, figures released Friday by the European Union's statistics agency suggest that may have changed. Eurostat said wages were 2.0% higher in the three months through June than a year earlier, the fastest rise since the first quarter of 2015 and up from 1.3% in the previous three-month period.
The ECB's economists had expected wages to pick up more slowly. They forecast last week that wage growth would rise to 2.0% next year and 2.3% in 2019 from 1.5% in 2017, although they still saw inflation running below target in the final year of that projection.
The pickup in wages, if it appears to be sustainable, makes it more likely that the ECB will wind down its purchases of government and other bonds next year. Mr. Draghi last week said policy makers had discussed options for reducing stimulus and would likely decide at their next meeting on Oct. 26 how to "calibrate" bond purchases.
Write to Paul Hannon at firstname.lastname@example.org
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 15, 2017 06:25 ET (10:25 GMT)