The U.S. economy might appear to be humming along in the late stages of an economic expansion, but experts don’t think it will be sustained for too many years to come.
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A whopping 75 percent of economists think the U.S. economy will enter a recession by 2021, according to a new survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE). While only 10 percent of respondents thought it could happen as soon as this year, 42 percent predicted a downturn in 2020, while 25 percent of economists predicted a recession would occur in 2021.
If the expansion – which began in 2009 – lasted until June, it would be the longest.
Among the chief concerns for experts is the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China. About two-thirds of respondents said existing tariffs would hit GDP growth by at least 25 basis points this year. Even more thought the tariffs would cause inflation to rise.
Furthermore, half of economists expect global growth to slow. One in four thought it could dip below 3 percent.
Late last year the stock market entered a volatile period, spurred by aforementioned concerns regarding U.S. trade relations and decelerating global growth.
Respondents were also troubled by a growing budget deficit, believing the administration’s tax law and spending policies will cause it to increase relative to GDP.
In terms of things panelists viewed as positives for U.S. growth were the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the Trump administration’s deregulation efforts.
The Commerce Department will release an advance reading for fourth quarter GDP this week – which was delayed due to a record-long partial government shutdown.