A nearly year-long, back-and-forth trade war between the U.S. and China that has culminated in millions of dollars in tariffs from both economic giants could end up costing the average American household more than $2,000 in 2019.
A study published by ImpactECON and commissioned by the lobbying shop for Koch Industries, examined the impacts of tariffs, which it said could affect more than $1 trillion in U.S. imports and exports. The conservative-leaning Koch brothers, who are chief influencers within the Republican Party, have advocated against the tariffs.
Next year, households are expected to lose $2,357 because of the tariffs, or $915 per person, according to the study. GDP losses, meanwhile, are projected to grow to $2.8 trillion between 2018 and 2030.
The report comes ahead of the latest meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Argentina at the G20 summit, but the chances of the two world leaders striking a trade deal seems to be increasingly unlikely.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday, Trump said he expects to move forward with boosting tariff levels on $200 billion of Chinese goods, adding that he thought it was “highly unlikely” he would accept Beijing’s request to hold off on the increase. He also threatened an additional $267 billion with a tariff rate of either 10 percent or 25 percent.
“The only deal would be, China has to open up their country to competition from the United States,” Trump said.
While Trump said the U.S. economy wouldn’t suffer if an agreement wasn’t reached with China -- he argued the country would benefit from tariffs collected on Chinese imports -- that might not be the case, according to the study.
About 2.75 million workers might lose their jobs if all of the promised sanctions are imposed, particularly hurting the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Goods affected will include oil seeds (soybeans), meats, coarse grains, chemicals, rubber, plastics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and aluminum.
Strong economic growth in the U.S. may protect workers initially, but as more tariffs are officially imposed, the number of unemployed persons will likely grow. In 2019, approximately 665,000 workers could lose their jobs, and by 2030, an estimated 1.07 million workers could.