New long-term forecasts by Standard Chartered Plc, predict the U.S. will likely get bumped to third-largest economy by 2030.
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Every year, the British-based financial services company releases its ranking of the world's top 10 largest economies and found that China will likely lead the pack in a decade’s time.
In fact, the group found that seven of the world’s top 10 economies will most likely be current emerging markets.
India is poised to be larger than the U.S. by then, while Indonesia will come in behind as the fourth-largest economy.
"Our long-term growth forecasts are underpinned by one key principle: countries’ share of world GDP should eventually converge with their share of the world’s population, driven by the convergence of per-capita GDP between advanced and emerging economies," Standard Chartered economists said in a note to investors.
The firm projected India’s GDP growth to accelerate to 7.8 percent by 2020, while China will hover around 5 percent by 2030, reflecting a natural slowdown given its size.
The Tipping Point?
Standard Chartered said it believes the middle-class is at a tipping point, with a majority of the world’s population expected to enter that class by 2020.
Here are Standard Chartered estimates of the 2030’s top 10 economies by nominal GDP using purchasing power parities exchange rates (in trillions of dollars):
1. China $64.2
2. India $46.3
3. U.S. $31.0
4. Indonesia $10.1
5. Turkey $9.1
6. Brazil $8.6
7. Egypt $8.2
8. Russia $7.9
9. Japan $7.2
10. Germany $6.9