The disappointing ADP figure doesn’t bode well for Friday’s much-anticipated April employment report. Economists expect U.S. non-farm payrolls to rise by 170,000. That would be an increase from March, which shocked the markets with a paltry 120,000 jobs added. The graphic below highlights the strong correlation between the ADP survey and the Labor Department’s report.
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Over the past 10 years the two have moved in lockstep 93% of the time, according to an analysis by FOX Business. While the actual numbers reported sometimes differ by a wide margin, they have a very strong tendency to move in the same direction. Based on this historical relationship, it shouldn’t be a surprise if Friday’s non-farm jobs figure comes in significantly below the 170,000 estimate.