Trade expert reveals what Trump-Xi $30B deal means as holiday season approaches
Clark Packard said shoppers could see modest savings on certain retail items but warned broader impact will be limited
Trump-Xi $30B trade deal could bring cheaper holiday goods, trade policy expert says
In an interview with FOX Business, CATO research fellow Clark Packard breaks down how the Trump-Xi trade agreement could affect consumers and the future of U.S.-China trade relations.
A trade policy expert said shoppers may be able to expect modest price relief as the holiday season approaches after President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping struck a deal to reduce tariffs on $30 billion in goods, including household goods and toys.
Clark Packard, a research fellow for international trade policy at the Cato Institute, broke down what the new agreement could mean for American consumers in an interview with FOX Business.
"Consumers can probably expect some cheaper household items and toys as we near the holidays. Beyond that, I don't think a whole lot's gonna change for your average American consumer," Packard said.
Many of the items targeted for tariff reductions focus on "things you kind of give and get at the holidays for gifts," Packard said, mentioning toys, dolls, puzzles, household and kitchen wares as examples.
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U.S. President Donald Trump, right, walks the red carpet after greeting Chinese President Xi Jinping, left, during an arrival ceremony Sept. 23, 2026, at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images / Getty Images)
However, the extent of any savings remains unclear, as major retailers could respond with a mix of holiday discounts and profit-margin absorption, Packard said.
Still, the tariff reduction represents only a small fraction of the more than $400 billion in U.S. imports from China last year, Packard said. Estimates show the agreement drops the overall U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports from about 22% to 20.5%, he added.
"Thirty billion dollars is not a whole lot. I do think there's going to be some modest impacts. Some specific sectors will benefit, retail being one," Packard said.
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Shoppers could see modest savings on toys, kitchen wares and other holiday items, Packard said. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images/File / Getty Images)
Packard noted that many high-tech items were excluded from the deal due to geopolitical and security concerns. Those areas include internet-connected auto parts, U.S. controls on advanced semiconductors and Chinese control of rare-earth mineral supply chains.
"The U.S. has concerns about Chinese control over the rare-earth mineral supply chain. … And China worries about the U.S.'s control over the semiconductor supply chain," Packard said. "I don't see a political willingness on either side in Washington or Beijing to really address kind of the true underlying causes and frictions."
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The Trump-Xi deal will lower tariffs on $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods. (iStock / iStock)
The agreement kicks major decisions down the road, reflecting short-term, incremental progress on lower-stakes items while leaving broader trade tensions unresolved.
"This deal essentially kicks the can to the new year. And, so, my sense is we're going to continue to address these issues in short spurts until there is that willingness on both sides," Packard said.
"But we're really far away from any kind of grand bargain."