Republicans could feel 'same fate' as Democrats as gas prices are elevated ahead of midterms, expert says

Elevated gas prices ahead of November’s midterm elections could make Republicans feel the "same fate" the Democrats did in 2022, when prices that summer hit an average of $5 a gallon, an expert told FOX Business. 

Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, made the remark this week as the national average for a gallon of gas currently sits at $4.42 Wednesday, according to GasBuddy data. Four years ago, the Democrats lost their slim majority in the House of Representatives after controlling both chambers heading into the election, like the Republicans do now. 

"Traditionally, high gas prices going into an election have a negative impact on the incumbent party. Democrats were hurt with high prices in 2022, and Republicans could feel that same fate in 2026," De Haan told FOX Business. "Especially with fuel prices being so actively discussed in the media, it's a common reminder for Americans that prices remain very elevated, both on gasoline and for diesel.

"So, generally speaking, high gas prices going into an election hurt an incumbent party and that's probably why we are seeing politicians at various levels trying to address the high prices," De Haan continued. "The Trump administration is looking at the potential for a diesel export ban in hopes of reducing diesel prices, something that may be short-lived with a ban. Other states, like Indiana and Georgia now, and potentially Ohio, are all looking at gas tax relief, something that is also showing up in other states. Governor Newsom is waiving California's fuel requirements to hopefully bring the onset of falling prices." 

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De Haan said overall, there have been "a lot of political maneuvers ahead of the election here to drive prices down when they've been very high for seven months." 

White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers told FOX Business, "President Trump remains committed to unleashing American energy dominance, cutting costs, and putting more money back in the pockets of hardworking American families. 

"A few weeks ago, the president met with nearly a dozen refiners at the White House to discuss ways to expand our refining capacity, which will lower prices at the pump," she said in a statement. "As the U.S. continues to maintain full control of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will fall back to pre-conflict levels."

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In a recent Fox News Poll conducted in mid-September, 61% of voters said the cost of gas prices is a major problem for them, up from 48% two years ago. 

De Haan said gas prices "could" drop before November’s midterm elections, but "how much better is really contingent on how these geopolitical tensions that have had a major impact on prices the last seven months continue to unfold. 

"Generally speaking, gas prices do usually moderate in the fall, regardless of political year or election. Gas prices always decline in the autumn as the nation transitions back to cheaper winter gasoline and as gasoline demand progressively declines with the onset of colder weather. So traditionally there are tailwinds, gas prices declining, progressively through September, October, November," he said. "This year, of course, with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran and Ukraine and Russia, have at least for now temporarily delayed that decline, and they could impact that decline in the weeks ahead. 

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"For now though, the price of oil has declined somewhat as some oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz, so it is possible that we could start to see some declines materialize, though it still could be a volatile time ahead of the election as these geopolitical tensions do continue to play a role," De Haan also told FOX Business.