Fox News Poll: Clinton Tops Trump by 6 Points
Hillary Clinton remains ahead of Donald Trump with just three weeks until Election Day.
She has a six-point lead over Trump, 45-39 percent, in a new Fox News Poll of likely voters. Clinton was up by seven points last week (45-38 percent) and by two in early October (44-42 percent). Gary Johnson stands at 5 percent and Green Party’s Jill Stein at 3 percent.
In the head-to-head matchup, Clinton’s up by 49-42 percent. It was 49-41 percent at the end of last week (Oct. 10-12).
Clinton’s advantage over Trump is at the edge of the poll’s margin of error in the four-way contest and outside the margin of error in the head-to-head ballot.
The national poll, released Tuesday, was conducted Saturday through Monday. The third and final presidential debate will be moderated by Fox News Channel’s Chris Wallace in Las Vegas Wednesday.
A large gender gap marks the four-way race, as Trump is ahead by 7 points among men, while Clinton is up 17 points among women. She also leads among non-whites (+51 points) and younger voters under 30 (+19). Johnson and Stein get the support of one in five of these young voters.
Whites with a college degree favor Clinton (+9 points), while whites without a degree go for Trump (+27). He’s also the choice among whites (+10 points), veterans (+17), and those who regularly attend religious services (+16).
Trump has an edge among independents (+7), but is hurt by a lack of party loyalty. Only 80 percent of Republicans back him. Eighty-seven percent of Democrats support Clinton.
The two are about equally matched on strength of support and interest. About two-thirds of each candidate’s supporters back their choice “strongly,” and almost all of their supporters are extremely or very interested in the race.
There are, however, major differences on temperament and judgment. Overall, 61 percent of voters say Clinton has the temperament to serve effectively as president. Sixty-one percent think Trump doesn’t.
By a 7-point margin, voters say Clinton has the judgment to serve (53-46 percent). It’s the reverse for Trump, as by a 23-point margin they believe he lacks the judgment (37-60 percent).
That goes a long way toward explaining why Clinton is preferred over Trump by more voters when it comes to making decisions about using nuclear weapons (+25 points), handling an international crisis (+19), and handling foreign policy (+18).
While the two are more closely matched, Clinton also comes out on top on nominating Supreme Court justices (+6 points), as well as on handling the issues of Social Security/Medicare (+8), immigration (+6), and terrorism (+4 points).
However, Trump tops Clinton by six points on handling the economy -- and voters say that’s the most important issue facing the country. Clinton briefly had the edge last week (+3 points). Otherwise, Trump has consistently had a single-digit advantage on the economy.
Republican pollster Daron Shaw says if the election focus is on creating jobs and spurring economic growth, then “Trump is very competitive.” Shaw conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
Despite her close ties to the Obama administration, by a slim 47-44 percent margin, voters pick Clinton over Trump as the one who will “change the country for the better.”
More registered voters would feel “enthusiastic” or “pleased” if Clinton were to win in November (37 percent), than would feel that way about a Trump win (30 percent).
Both candidates receive more negative reactions to them winning (displeased/scared) than positive ones (enthusiastic/pleased). Over half would feel negatively if Trump were to become the next president (56 percent), including 46 percent who would feel “scared.” For Clinton, 48 percent would react negatively, including 31 percent “scared.”
Seventy-six percent of Democrats would feel scared about a Trump presidency. Far fewer Republicans, 56 percent, say a Clinton victory scares them.
It’s well-established that neither candidate is seen as honest by the electorate. Yet on specific scandals, the poll finds a difference: more voters think Clinton is lying about how her emails were handled while she was secretary of state (67 percent) than think Trump is lying about the allegations women are making against him (51 percent). Even so, the email issue matters less in vote choice, as 24 percent of those who think Clinton is lying still back her, while just 8 percent of those who believe Trump is lying support him.
While neither is beloved, Trump’s personal ratings are worse than Clinton’s. She has a net negative rating of 4 points (47 percent favorable vs. 51 percent unfavorable). Trump is under water by 19 points (40 percent favorable vs. 59 percent unfavorable).
Again, the party faithful aren’t all with Trump: 22 percent of Republicans have a negative opinion of him. That’s more than twice the number of Democrats who view Clinton unfavorably (9 percent).
Even so, 77 percent of Republicans view Trump favorably, which is much more positive than their view of some of his GOP primary opponents: Ted Cruz (59 percent), Jeb Bush (56 percent), and John Kasich (44 percent). Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Trump surrogate, is viewed favorably by 72 percent of Republicans.
Clinton (91 percent favorable) has higher favorable ratings among Democrats than some of her surrogates, like former President Bill Clinton (88 percent favorable) and former Vice President Al Gore (76 percent favorable).
The stand-out is First Lady Michelle Obama, who gets a 59 percent positive rating overall, and a 95 percent favorable among Democrats.
Pollpourri
Are the media being fair to the candidates? Many voters don’t think so.
Fifty-one percent say news coverage of Trump has been fair (46 percent) or biased in his favor (5 percent). Yet 43 percent say it’s been unfairly biased against him.
On the other hand, more than 8-in-10 think coverage of Clinton has either been fair (55 percent) or unfairly positive (27 percent). Only 11 percent feel it’s been anti-Clinton.
Seventy-eight percent of those backing Clinton think her coverage has been fair or in her favor. For Trump, that number is just 13 percent.
The Fox News Poll is based on landline and cellphone interviews with 1,011 randomly chosen registered voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from October 15-17, 2016. The survey includes results among 912 likely voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for results among both registered and likely voters.