Universal Display (NASDAQ: OLED) reported first-quarter results last night, and shares have promptly soared to new all-time highs today. Fellow Fool Steve Symington breaks down the headline numbers here, but the short version is the results were strong. Among other bullish signs, the company boosted full-year 2017 guidance by about $30 million at the midpoint.
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2017 Revenue Guidance
May 4, 2017
$260 million to $280 million
Feb. 23, 2017
$230 million to $250 million
Data source: SEC filings.
Of course, easily the biggest potential catalyst for this year is the prospect of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) releasing an OLED iPhone. Like most Apple suppliers, particularly the smaller ones, Universal Display is undoubtedly bound by a slew of non-disclosure and confidentiality agreements, so the company can't say much about the iPhone maker possibly adopting OLED display technology for the first time.
OLED emitter materials. Image source: Universal Display.
Still, there were some vague hints in the conference call. (These are excerpts instead of full quotations with all emphasis added.)
Reading between the lines
CEO Steven Abramson started off with prepared remarks:
Goldman analyst Brian Lee tried to pry out some clues, asking, "So curious how you're thinking about potential upside drivers from here moving through the year, or if you would temper that type of analysis with a view that maybe the cadence for this year, first half versus second half will be very abnormal versus what you typically see."
Apple launches iPhones in the fall and that could contribute to a back-loaded year, which is what Lee is getting at here.However, CFO Sid Rosenblatt skillfully dodged that part of the question, reiterating that OLED trends are very bumpy and it's hard to make granular forecasts on a quarterly basis, which is why Universal Display only provides full-year outlook:
Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini asked about manufacturing capacity going forward: "You, recently, a couple of months ago, changed your contract manufacturing with PPG. And given the traction you have seen so far in the year and what you would expect over the next 12 to 18 months, do you foresee going back to PPG and actually increasing the minimum capacity or modifying it, given the strongest start to the year?"
Rosenblatt again: "But we're always looking at our capacity. We believe even with the increase, because we expected a significant increase this year, we have enough capacity in place today, and then with this new capacity to meet our needs for the foreseeable future."
Gabelli analyst Hendi Susanto asked about the rest of the year:
Rosenblatt noted that it's all tied to ramping capacity:
To be clear, a lot of these comments are vague enough that they could refer to the general growing adoption of OLED throughout various markets. Display makers are investing billions of dollars in ramping capacity to accommodate demand for a wide range of end markets. But with expectations of an OLED iPhone running high, there has to be some Apple embedded in there.
There have been numerous reports that the OLED iPhone could be delayed for a variety of reasons, including technical challenges and component shortages. With what we know of the OLED capacity ramp and lofty volume requirements for flagship iPhones, OLED panels could be one of those bottlenecks.
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Evan Niu, CFA owns shares of Apple and Universal Display. Evan Niu, CFA has the following options: long January 2018 $50 calls on Universal Display. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Apple and Universal Display. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.