Should We Trust the Yield Curve Alarm?

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By Alex Dryden via Understanding the curve The yield curve, specifically its potential inversion, has become one of the most trusted signals of impending economic turmoil. The reason for this is shown in Exhibit 1: an inverted yield curve (typically when the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield is higher than the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield) has [...]

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