For anyone betting on the Northeast's casino bonanza, the odds are long on projects hitting financial expectations.
A review of tax data in the last several states to open casinos — Ohio, Maryland and Pennsylvania — shows that overall revenue is coming in below baseline forecasts. Officials blame miscalculations of spending habits and new competition, but some also question how much the numbers reflected wishful thinking.
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As Massachusetts and New York prepare for a new round of casino building, they have added new levels of scrutiny, hiring multiple consulting firms to vet revenue projections. But the industry's growth in the Northeast's tight geography has made modeling more complex. Industry experts warn there is no guarantee newcomers won't also be in for disappointment.