Economic growth moderated in October, according to the Chicago Fed national activity index released Monday. The index fell to 0.14 from 0.29 in September. The three-month average declined to negative 0.01 from positive 0.12 in the prior month. The index, a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, is designed so that readings above zero indicate above-trend growth. When the three-month average exceeds 0.7, there's an increasing likelihood of sustained increasing inflation, and when it's below negative 0.7, there's an increasing likelihood a recession has begun.
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