There’s a 50 percent chance the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak will drive the United States into a recession this year, according to BNY Mellon Chief Strategist Alicia Levine.
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“We’re probably headed towards one in the month of March, certainly by the second quarter,” Levine told FOX Business' Gerry Baker on WSJ at Large. “Some people think we’re here already.”
The bigger concern, Levine explained, is how long it will last.
“The question is, do you have an entire year which is in recession?” she asked. “We think that’s actually less of a chance because we see a bounce back starting in the third, fourth quarter of this year.”
“There was a sudden stop [during 9/11], right?" Levine recalled. "We call that a sudden stop, when, all of a sudden, all economic activity stops. And it depresses growth, it depresses demand, and then it recovers at some point.”
Despite the depressing prognostication, Levin believes by the third or fourth quarter, America will start to see growth return.