Akamai Technologies (AKAM) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

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Akamai Technologies (NASDAQ: AKAM) Q4 2018 Earnings Conference CallFeb. 12, 2019 4:30 p.m. ET

Contents:

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  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Akamai Technologies Q4 and fiscal 2018 earnings conference call. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded for replay purposes. It is now my pleasure hand the conference over to Tom Barth, head of investor relations.

Sir, you may begin.

Tom Barth -- Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Brian. And good afternoon, everyone, and we appreciate you joining Akamai's fourth quarter and fiscal year-end 2018 earnings conference call. Speaking today will be Tom Leighton, Akamai's chief executive officer; Jim Benson, Akamai's chief financial officer; and Ed McGowan, Akamai's senior vice president of finance. Before we get started, please note that today's comments include forward-looking statements, including statements regarding revenue and earnings guidance.

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and involve a number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Additional information concerning these factors is contained in Akamai's filings with the SEC, including our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. The forward-looking statements included in this call represent the company's view on February 12, 2019. Akamai disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances.

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As a reminder, we'll be referring to some non-GAAP financial metrics during today's call. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP metrics can be found under the financial portion of the Investor Relations section of akamai.com. And with that, let me turn the call over to Tom.

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Tom. And thank you all for joining us today. Akamai delivered excellent results in the fourth quarter. Revenue was $713 million, up 8% over Q4 of 2017 and up 10% in constant currency.

Q4 non-GAAP EPS was $1.07 per diluted share, up 51% year over year and up 52% in constant currency. These very strong results were driven by the continued rapid growth of our security business, the continued improvement in our media and carrier division, and a robust holiday commerce season in our Web Division. Our bottom line also benefited from a lower tax rate and from our continued focus on operational excellence. EBITDA margins in Q4 expanded to 42% and non-GAAP operating margins expanded to 28%.

Q4 marked our fifth consecutive quarter of increasing margins and we anticipate further margin expansion in 2019. We also have clear line of sight to achieving non-GAAP operating margins of 30% in 2020 while continuing to invest in innovation and new products to drive our future growth. For the full year, revenue was $2.7 billion, up 9% over the prior year. Non-GAAP EPS for 2018 was $3.62, up a $1 or 38% over 2017.

We're especially pleased to report that we generated over $1 billion in cash from operations last year. This was up 26% over 2017 and represented 37% of our revenue. In Q4, our security portfolio continued to be the fastest growing part of our business with revenue of $185 million, up a very strong 38% year over year in constant currency. Security accounted for 26% of our total revenue last quarter and our Security business exited 2018 with a revenue run rate of $750 million per year.

We now expect our security business to top the $1 billion mark in annualized revenues in 2020. That's a remarkable milestone, but we're not planning to stop there. With our acquisition of Janrain, which closed on January 23, and the development of our new zero-trust enterprise security solution, we anticipate that our security business will continue to grow at a very fast pace for many years to come. Janrain establishes Akamai as a market leader in the customer identity and access management space.

Their solutions are designed to manager -- manage user logins and data for major consumer-facing websites. They verify the identity of the end-user and make sure that the user experience is optimized and secure. Janrain does this in part by keeping track of how users access their accounts. For example, which devices they use and from which locations.

We believe that we can use this data to help strengthen all our security solutions. And by combining Janrain's technology with our Bot Manager Solution, we believe that we can make it even harder for attackers to hack into or steal user accounts. Janrain will also help us protect enterprises from data breaches. That's because Janrain stores user information so that the enterprise doesn't have to.

And if an enterprise doesn't keep user information like user names, passwords, phone numbers, and addresses then it can't be stolen from that enterprise in a data breach. Keeping user data safe means more than just not having it stolen. It also means complying with the various data privacy laws that are being adopted by governments around the world. And it means helping end users have more control over who gets access to their data and what they can do with it.

This is going to be increasingly important in the future and we believe that our unique security solutions can help position Akamai as a company that can be trusted in a world where big tech companies are being called out for their questionable uses of personal information. As we look forward, we're also excited about our new zero-trust enterprise security solution. Last quarter, we signed our first zero-trust deal worth more than $1 million per year, and we sold it to a manufacturer in Asia. Now as most of you know, manufacturing is not a vertical known for buying our traditional Web services but manufacturing companies do care about cyber security and protecting their enterprise.

And the same is true for just about every major company today. And so, with our enterprise security solutions, we see an opportunity to dramatically expand the range of companies that we can serve. And since companies typically spend more on enterprise security than they do on Web security, we expect this emerging business to have a more meaningful impact on our revenue beginning in 2020. We're also continuing to invest in other innovative technologies that could bring substantial future returns.

For example, today we announced a new joint venture with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group of Japan. The joint venture will offer a new block chain-based online payment platform called Global Open Network or GO-NET for short. GO-NET is designed to enable next-generation digital financial transactions to be scalable, fast, efficient, and secure. The new platform is expected to become available in the first half of 2020.

We were also very pleased to see the continued improvement in our media and carrier business in Q4. Traffic growth last quarter remained very strong in our OTT and gaming sectors. And in December, we achieved another record for peak traffic, driven by software downloads for Microsoft and Fortnight and streaming of the UEFA Champions League. We continue to grow traffic faster than the Internet as a whole in Q4, which means that we continued to gain share.

And because of our relentless focus on efficiency, we actually spent less on network costs in 2018 than we spent in the prior year. Overall, we're very pleased with the progress we made last year. We accelerated revenue growth, we made dramatic improvements to our margins, we grew non-GAAP EPS by nearly 40%, we developed innovative new technology that we believe will drive substantial revenue growth in the future, and we delivered excellent value to our customers, further decreasing our already low customer churn rate. And we managed to do all this while keeping Akamai a great place to work, where corporate social responsibility is a strong part of our culture.

For example, we ranked as one of the Forbes just 100 companies, doing right by treating workers and customers well, protecting privacy, producing quality products, minimizing our environmental impact, giving back to our communities, and by providing ethical leadership. We ranked as one of the best employers for diversity out of 50,000 U.S. firms with more than 1,000 employees, and we scored a perfect 100 on the Human Rights' Campaigns Corporate Equality Index. I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all of the talented employees on our global team for all their hard work on behalf of our customers and shareholders in 2018.

Because of their continued innovation and great customer service, Akamai is very well-positioned for the years ahead. I also want to take this opportunity to say a special thank you to Jim Benson. As you may have seen in today's press release, Jim is planning to retire from Akamai later this year. And he'll be transitioning his CFO duties to Ed McGowan in March.

Jim has been a great CFO and I'm very grateful to him for his many contributions to Akamai's growth and future success. Over the last 10 years, Jim has developed an outstanding finance organization and he's instilled a strong operational and financial discipline across the company. He's been a great business partner, not only for me, but for the entire Akamai senior leadership team and the board. His many contributions to Akamai will be calmly remembered for many years to come.

Although Jim is stepping out of the CFO role after filing the 10-K in March, I'm very pleased that he'll be staying on as an executive advisor to help ensure a smooth transition. While we're sad to see Jim leave, we're also delighted about Ed's promotion as CFO. Ed is a highly accomplished finance executive and an 18-year veteran of Akamai, with broad knowledge of our business, our customers, and the industry. He began his career with us in finance and sales operations, and then took on executive roles in Corporate Development and Global Media and Carrier sales.

Most recently Ed served as SVP in Finance, overseeing business finance, customer revenue operations and FP&A as well as leading a key transformation project to drive increased levels of sustained profitable growth. Having worked closely with Ed for over a decade, I'm looking forward to benefiting from his experience and knowledge in the role of CFO as we work to deliver profitable growth for our shareholders in 2019 and beyond. Now I'll turn the call over to Jim to review our Q4 and 2018 results, and then Ed will share our guidance for Q1 and 2019 as well as some preliminary thoughts about 2020. Jim?

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you for the kind words, Tom, and good afternoon, everyone. This is a great team here at Akamai and I'm very proud of what we've accomplished over the last nine years. With revenues approaching $3 billion, a year a rapidly growing security business with the $750 million annualized run rate, a more diversified portfolio that I believe positions Akamai for long-term success, industry-leading profitability, and a consistent focus on managing the business for the long-term while delivering results in the near term. As I approach my 10th year helping to lead and drive the business and after discussing my desire to make a change with Tom, I've decided this is the ideal time for Akamai to transition to the next CFO to lead our next phase of continued growth and expansion.

The company has been demonstrating strong business results. We have a very talented finance team and bench in place, and there are many exciting future growth opportunities ahead. I'm very pleased to be turning the reins over to Ed McGowan, who I have worked with over the past nine years most recently as my senior vice president of Finance. I'm looking forward to helping Ed, Tom, and the team in the near term, spending some more time with my family, and considering my next professional challenge.

I am confident that this transition will be seamless. With that, let me now dive into the details of our strong Q4 financial results. As Akamai -- as Tom outlined, Akamai continued to perform well and had an exceptional fourth quarter, closing out a fantastic 2018. We exceeded the high end of our guidance on revenues, operating margins, and earnings and delivered substantial operating margin improvements for the fifth consecutive quarter.

We continued to execute well and to demonstrate the leverage in Akamai's operating model. And we remain confident, we will show further progress in 2019 and have clear line of sight to achieve our goal of 30% operating margins in 2020. Q4 revenue came in above the high end of our guidance range at $713 million, up 8% year over year or 10% in constant currency, or up a healthy 11%, if you exclude the six large Internet platform customers. Notably, this is the fourth straight quarter of year-over-year double-digit revenue growth when you exclude the Internet platform giants.

Revenue growth continued to be solid across most of the business with the over-achievement compared to guidance driven by the rapid growth of our security services and higher-than-expected holiday season traffic in our media and commerce verticals, notably. I mentioned on our last call that holiday season traffic would play a large role and where we would land relative to our fourth-quarter guidance, and it did. Traffic was solid across our core installed base with particularly strong growth coming in our gaming over-the-top and commerce verticals. Revenue from our media and carrier division customers was $328 million in the fourth quarter, up 8% year over year or 9% in constant currency and up a healthy 14% in constant currency, excluding the large Internet platform customers.

Revenue from the Internet platform customers was $43 million in the fourth quarter, consistent with Q3 levels and in line with our expectations. Revenues from these customers continued to stabilize and represented just 6% of total Akamai revenues. Our lowest level of revenue concentration in recent memory and a testament to our continued progress on diversifying our revenue base across customers, solutions, and geographies over the past several years. Moving now to our Web Division.

Revenue from these customers was $385 million, up 9% year over year or 10% in constant currency, a slight acceleration from Q3 levels driven by a strong online retail season for our e-commerce customers. We also continue to see a strong uptake in our new product areas, namely Bot Manager, Image Manager, and Digital Performance Management as well as further strong growth in adoption for our core security solutions. Turning now to our results for our security solutions, fourth-quarter revenue was $185 million, up 36% year over year or 38% in constant currency and yet another quarter of tremendous revenue growth from increased customer adoption of these solutions globally. We are particularly pleased to see continued strong revenue growth in our security offerings in Q4 and throughout full-year 2018 from both the Web and media division customer bases.

Entering 2019, our rapidly growing security business now at an annualized revenue run rate of $750 million. As Tom mentioned, we believe security continues to present a tremendous growth opportunity for us and we plan to continue to invest in this area to further enhance and extend our product portfolio and go-to-market capabilities. Our recent entrance into customer identity and access management is a great example of how we're adding complementary capabilities to our world-class security offerings as well as acquiring additional enterprise sales talent. Moving on to our geographies, sales in our international markets continued to be strong and represented 39% of total revenue in Q4, up 1 point from the prior quarter.

International revenue was $279 million in the fourth quarter, up 20% year over year or 23% in constant currency, driven by continued strong growth in our Asia-Pacific region and another solid quarter in our EMEA region. Foreign exchange fluctuations had a negative impact on revenue of $3 million on a sequential basis and $8 million on a year over year basis. Finally, from our U.S. market, revenue was $434 million, up 2% year over year and up 4% excluding our large Internet platform customers.

Moving on to costs, cash gross margin was 79%, up nearly 2 points from Q3 levels in the same period last year and 1 point above our guidance due to higher revenues and improved network efficiencies. Not only is this the second consecutive quarter that our bandwidth and colocation dollar spend declined year over year, but absolute expenses for full-year 2018 were lower than 2017 spend as well. This is noteworthy given the significant increase in traffic over the same period. We are very pleased with our continued ability to efficiently manage network costs.

GAAP gross margin, which includes both depreciation and stock-based compensation, was 66% also up 2 points from Q3 levels and in line with our guidance. Non-GAAP cash operating expenses were $262 million, up $18 million from Q3 levels. This was slightly above our guidance, driven by increased year-end commission and bonus costs associated with the revenue over-achievement. Moving now to profitability, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $301 million, up $28 million from Q3 levels and up $56 million or 23% from the same period in 2017.

Our adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 42%, up 1 point from Q3 levels up 5 points from Q4 2017 levels and in line with our guidance range. Non-GAAP operating income for the fourth quarter was $201 million, up $20 million from Q3 levels and $42 million or 26% from the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating margin came in at 28%, up 1 point from Q3 levels, up 4 points from Q4 of last year, and in line with our guidance range. I'm very pleased with the five consecutive quarters of margin expansion we have seen from our ongoing efficiency efforts and feel confident we can achieve our 30% non-GAAP operating margin goal in 2020 while continuing to make the required investments to drive both growth and further scale and leverage in the business.

Capital expenditures in Q4, excluding equity compensation and capitalized interest expense, were $125 million in line with our guidance for the quarter. For the full-year 2018, capital expenses came in at 16% of revenue and in line with our long-term model range. Moving on to earnings, non-GAAP net income was $176 million or $1.07 of earnings per diluted share, $0.04 above the high end of our guidance range. These strong earnings results were driven by continued top-line execution, ongoing network and operating expense efficiencies, and a lower tax rate.

Taxes included in our non-GAAP earnings were $32 million based on a Q4 effective tax rate of just over 15%. This effective tax rate is a couple of points lower than our guidance due to a higher mix of foreign earnings and the resulting year-to-date true-up in the quarter. For the full year, the 2018 non-GAAP tax rate was just under 18%. Moving on to our GAAP earnings.

There is one noteworthy item impacting our Q4 GAAP results that I'd like to provide some color on. We recorded a $13 million restructuring charge in Q4 and we expect to record an additional restructuring charge of approximately $10 million to $12 million in Q1. These charges are primarily related to workforce reductions of approximately 125 employees in January or about 2% of our total headcount. Also included in our restructuring charge are some small capitalized software impairments from decisions to deprioritize certain investment areas that have not achieved the commercial success and return on investment we expected.

It is important to note that these restructuring actions are being taken to enable some rebalancing of our investments, divesting in some areas, investing in others, and to position the company to meet our long-term goals of continued growth and scale. Factoring in this GAAP-only restructuring charge, GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $94 million or $0.57 of earnings per diluted share. Now, I'll review our use of capital. We continue to focus on the importance of returning capital to shareholders.

During the fourth quarter, we spent $124 million on share repurchases buying back roughly 1.9 million shares. For the year, we spent $750 million buying back 10.2 million shares, representing 124% of our free cash flow and resulting in our share count declining from 171 million shares at the beginning of the year to 165 million shares in the fourth quarter. We now have $1.1 billion on our previously announced share repurchase authorization. And going forward, we intend to continue returning to our shareholders a significant percentage of our free cash flow through share repurchases balanced against our preserving our flexibility for other strategic opportunities.

We believe our disciplined and balanced capital allocation approach will allow us to continue driving shareholder value through investing organically in the business, pursuing additional M&A like we recently completed with Janrain, and returning capital to stockholders via share repurchases. In summary, we are pleased with how the business performed in Q4 and throughout 2018, and remain confident in our ability to execute on our plans for the long-term. I'd now like to turn the call over to Ed to cover the Q1 and 2019 guidance, along with some initial thoughts on 2020. And again, I want to say how pleased I am to hand the reins to you.

I know we are in good hands. Ed?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Thanks Jim. It's been a pleasure working closely with you over the past nine years and I look forward to following your example of professionalism and business leadership in years ahead. Before I move on to guidance, there are three housekeeping items that I wanted to highlight. The first relates to a change in our network server useful life.

As some of you may recall, we announced on our Q4 2012 earnings call that we were required to extend the useful life of our network servers from three years to four years based on the actual server useful life trends. We carefully monitor the useful lives of all of our capital assets annually. And based on the outcome of that review, we now need to extend the useful lives of our network servers from four years to five years, similar to when we made the change six years ago. This extended useful life is a direct result of the continued software and hardware initiatives that we have put in place to manage our global network more efficiently because we are now using our servers and our network for an average of five years, we have determined it is appropriate under GAAP accounting to adjust our useful life policy to five years, and this change will be effective in Q1.

Please keep in mind, this change has no impact on cash flow, but will result in roughly a $24 million depreciation benefit in 2019 and a benefit of approximately $7 million in 2020. We have provided a supplemental table in the Investor Relations section of our website that details the impact of this change. Also, during Q1, we closed on our recently announced acquisition of Janrain. As we previously stated, Janrain will be approximately $0.05 to $0.06 dilutive to non-GAAP EPS in 2019.

But, we expect it to be accretive to non-GAAP EPS in 2020. Finally, just a reminder that our $690 million convertible bond is maturing on February 15, 2019. We are expecting to repay bondholders at par value using a portion of our $2.1 billion of cash on the balance sheet as of December 31, 2018. Moving now to guidance.

Today, we are providing guidance for both Q1 and full-year 2019, along with some early thoughts on 2020. Looking ahead to the first quarter, we are providing -- we are projecting another solid quarter on both the top and bottom line. We do expect to see some normal sequential revenue decline that we typically see in Q1 due to seasonality and perhaps a bit more pronounced this year due to the very strong holiday season this past quarter. In addition, we expect some foreign exchange impact from the strengthening U.S.

dollar. In the current spot rates foreign exchange fluctuations are expected to have a negative impact of approximately $14 million compared to Q1 of 2018. Therefore, we're expecting Q1 revenues in the range of $690 million to $704 million or up 5% to 7% in constant currency over Q1 of 2018. At these revenue levels, we expect cash gross margins of approximately 78%.

Q1 non-GAAP operating expenses are projected to be $252 million to $256 million, down from fourth-quarter spend levels even as we absorb the incremental expenses associated with the Janrain acquisition. The decline in Q1 is partially due to incentive compensation plans resetting at the beginning of the year and partially driven by the recent workforce reduction actions Jim mentioned a few moments ago. Factoring in the cash gross margin and operating expense expectations I just provided, we anticipated -- we anticipate Q1 EBITDA margins in the range of 41% to 42% consistent with Q4 levels oving on to depreciation, we expect non-GAAP depreciation expense to be between $90 million to $92 million, which includes the impact of the network server useful life change I mentioned earlier. Factoring in this guidance we expect non-GAAP operating margin of 28% to 29% for Q1.

Moving on to CAPEX, we expect to spend approximately $126 million to $136 million, excluding equity compensation in the first quarter. With the overall revenue and spend configuration I outlined, we expect Q1 non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of $1 to $1.05 or up 31% to 37% to constant currency. This EPS guidance assumes taxes of $35 million to $37 million based on an estimated quarterly non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 18%, and it also reflects a fully diluted share count of 164 million shares. Looking ahead to the full year, we are anticipating revenue in the range of $2.81 million to $2.85 million, which factors in a negative impact of roughly $16 million due to foreign exchange.

We also expect a revenue by quarter to follow the same quarter-over-quarter trends that we saw in 2018. For the full year, we expect adjusted EBITDA margins of approximately 41% and we expect 29 -- 2019 non-GAAP operating margins of approximately 28%, up approximately 1.5 points over full-year 2018 levels, and we are on a trajectory to further expand non-GAAP operating margins to 30% in 2020. It is worth noting that we do see some expense headwinds in 2019. We expect approximately $8 million per quarter of additional operating expenses beginning in Q3 as the benefit of our patent royalty payments from Limelight comes to an end and as we take on higher rent costs related to our new Cambridge headquarters.

Therefore, we expect to see a slight decline in both EBITDA and operating margins in Q3 with an improvement in Q4. Moving on a CAPEX, full-year CAPEX is expected to be approximately 19% of revenue. Included in our 2019 CAPEX spend is roughly a $100 million of onetime costs related to the buildout of our new headquarters that is expected to be completed by the end of this year. Excluding the -- excluding our headcount-related spend, our CAPEX levels are in line with our long-term model.

At these revenue and margin levels along with an expected non-GAAP effective tax rate of approximately 18% and fully diluted share count of approximately $164 million, we anticipate non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $4.15 for the full-year 2019. At the midpoint of that range, non-GAAP EPS would be up 14% year over year when adjusted for foreign exchange. We are pleased with how full-year 2019 is shaping up, particularly from a margin-expansion and profit perspective. In 2019, we plan to continue investing and innovating in areas we believe will drive future growth, continue to refine, and optimize our go-to-market efforts and ensure we are well-positioned to capture a growing share of the OTT market as we continue to focus on quality, cost, and scale.

We are optimistic that our efforts in 2019 across the company will result in an acceleration in growth rate for both revenue and EPS in 2020, given our expectations of significant traffic growth in 2020 due to more events such as the Olympics and the U.S. Presidential election as well as more direct to consumer offerings coming to market later in 2019 and early 2020, strong adoption of our new customer identity and access management products, increased market traction of our enterprise security products, and continued strong growth in our core Web security products such as Kona Site Defender and Bot Manager. In closing, we are very bullish about the opportunities ahead for Akamai. We are confident in our ability to deliver revenue growth, along with margin and earning expansion, achieve our 30% operating margin goal in 2020, and continue to invest in innovation to drive future growth.

Thank you. And Tom, Jim, and I would like to take your questions. Operator?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator instructions] Our first question will come from our James Breen with William Blair. Your line is now open.

James Breen -- William Blair and Company -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the question. Just can you talk about the security business and how you've seen the sales go between sort of the core DDoS and then some of the other products that you've sold. And from a customer perspective, what types of products [Inaudible] taking all services from you guys? Thanks.

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we're seeing strong adoption across the board starting with DDoS. Then we have Kona Site Defender, which protects applications from being corrupted or taken over, or the website content from being corrupted, theft during transactions. Bot Manager, as we've talked about before, is our fastest new selling product in memory. The majority of transactions today are no longer human.

There's bots. And particularly, the bots are trying to take over user accounts. The vast majority of logins today are not legitimate people but bots, who are trying out stolen credentials. So, very strong adoption across the board and we're starting to get traction now with our zero-trust enterprise security solution.

As I mentioned, we signed up our first million-dollar-a-year customer. And what was really nice about that is that it came from an account that would never have likely bought our normal content delivery web acceleration products. So the security business just across the board is doing very well.

James Breen -- William Blair and Company -- Analyst

And from a growth perspective, is your growth coming from -- or can you give a little color on where it's coming from, new customers versus existing customers taking more volumes?

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

It's both. The large fraction of our new customer bookings are for security today, and we are getting good up-sell with the new products within the existing base. For example, Bot Manager being a new product. With our enterprise security offerings, early days but there's both new customers, like the one that became our million dollar customer.

They weren't a customer before, but also selling that within existing accounts. So I would say both are strong new customers and upselling the new security offerings within existing accounts.

James Breen -- William Blair and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come the line of Brad Zelnick with Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Brad Zelnick -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Great. Thanks so much for taking my questions. Congrats on a great Q4, and Jim it's been great working with you and we look forward to working with Ed. So, congrats on a great run there.

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Brad Zelnick -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

You're welcome. Just a follow-on on the clock security question. Cloud security remains really impressive. How should we think about the sustainability and the visibility that you have here to the growth? And can you comment on pricing trends for [Inaudible] and DDoS in the market?

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We anticipate continuing a very strong growth rate, probably not in the 30s over the next couple of years but I would say certainly in the 20%, mid-20%. We did benefit last year from the acquisition of Nominum and their security products, which are doing quite well. But with the acquisition, we got a boost in 2018.

In terms of pricing, pricing is very strong. We have unique capabilities and they are very much needed by major enterprises. So, we're in a very strong position there to be able to maintain growth.

Brad Zelnick -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Thank you. And, Jim, just to follow up or, Ed, perhaps, in Tom's remarks, he had mentioned that you'd spent less on network costs in 2018 than in the prior year. And, Jim, in your prepared remarks as well you talked about efficiencies with bandwidth and colocation costs. Can you just remind us once again the sources of efficiencies along the entire stack and how you're able to do that and what the limits of these are as we look out into achieving 30% and perhaps even beyond in the years to come.

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

That's a great question. I mean, we -- this is not new for Akamai. As you know, we've made tremendous progress on network efficiencies for a long, long time. And some of the things we've talked about in the past have been we continue to implement new software to get more throughput out of our servers and so, you certainly saw that.

I think because of our breadth and the amount of traffic that we serve. From a bandwidth perspective, we get very favorable bandwidth pricing, and in some cases, we actually get free bandwidth for our customers. The same is true for colocation that we've been able to reduce our colocation spend by reducing the footprint and getting more throughput out of the servers, as I mentioned. So, I would say it's not new.

It's something we've been doing for quite some time. We continue to work on engineering innovation to continue to drive that. We continue to work on things around negotiations with providers, and I expect those things will continue, Brad. I do think that, as I outlined at our Investor Day in June, that I expected that network costs and our gross margins on a cash basis would be in the high 70s, and we're kind of where I expected to be.

So I think we should be able to stabilize those margins from where they are. And as I outlined before that on the path to 30, we're pretty close. We're, call it, we're at roughly 28% now and we think we're going to be drive more efficiency out of G&A in particular. We're building out a new procurement set of capabilities and we're gonna be able to drive more procurement savings.

We've done some facility consolidation. We'll continue to do that and we're driving some IT enablement that will allow us to take more G&A costs out. So, primarily kind of going forward, mostly from G&A, I'd say we're also getting some efficiencies on the go-to-market side as we build on a more efficient go-to-market model in both our web and our media division. So -- I mean, that's not going to be the the bulk of where the incremental margin is going to come from.

It's going to largely come from G&A, but you'll also see continued improvements within sales and marketing spend.

Brad Zelnick -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

That's really helpful. But just to be clear, the tick up in CAPEX in 2019, that's really just due to the $100 million onetime expenditure toward the new headquarters. Correct?

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Yes. And I outlined that at the Analyst Day that we'd have a big uptick kind of onetime for the new Cambridge headquarters. If you -- I think Ed outlined it in his prepared remarks that if you actually adjust for that, we're actually well in line with our model that we've outlined kind of 15% to 16% of revenue, so the uptick in CAPEX is all Cambridge headquarter related.

Brad Zelnick -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Perfect. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from Tim Horton with Oppenheimer. Your line is now open.

Tim Horton -- Oppenheimer Holdings -- Analyst

Thanks. Tom, can you give us an update on your major hyperscale customers, essentially where are they with do-it-yourself? Do you think you're pulling ahead in terms of technology and cost capabilities versus them? And maybe some color with some of the sort of competitors that are out there. Thank you.

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Some of the largest Internet platform companies have do-it-yourself efforts. They are used for large software downloads, some basic delivery. Our services, we believe, are a lot more effective at doing this offer, a lot more scalability, and higher quality.

And that's the reason there's so few of the companies that really can think about affording to do it themselves because that's a a big cost for them. I don't see any fundamental change in that landscape. In general, the competitive landscape as a whole hasn't really changed all that much. There's a lot of competitors.

The folks that have been doing CDM for a long long time, plenty of start-ups out there trying to get in the business and, of course, the do-it-yourself. No fundamental change. We, I think, continue to gain share and we do that through superior performance, competitive pricing, the largest scale that's available on the Internet, and increasingly, the -- our security solutions are very helpful for us in terms of gaining share, especially with the performance solutions. We sell packages, protect and perform, in the same platform that accelerates the side or delivers the content secures it.

And security is really important for our customers and nobody really is in a position to offer the kinds of capabilities that we do there.

Tim Horton -- Oppenheimer Holdings -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Colby Synesael with Cowen & Company. Your line is now open.

Colby Synesael -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thank you. A few questions on growth. I was hoping you can give us what the organic growth was in 2018.

So backing out, the benefit from some of the acquisitions that occurred in parts of 2017. And then also what the implied organic revenue growth is for 2019. And maybe as part of that, just what your assumptions are for Janrain. And then my other question just has to do with the performance segment.

I know you don't break that out anymore, but when you give your guidance for 2019, what is your just broad expectations or assumptions for that that then went into that? Thank you.

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Sure. This is Ed. In terms of our organic growth last year, is probably around 7%. If you look at Nominum, added about $40 million, roughly, last year to the growth rate.

As far as our expectations around Janrain, expecting it to be approximately $20 million, so not significant for 2019 in terms of revenue but we do expect to get significant traction in the marketplace with our customers and expect to see significant growth [Inaudible] new Janrain products. And as far as the organic growth now, we're prospecting our security solutions to be growing in the mid 20s, as Tom talked about. And if you do the math on that, basically it would suggest that the CD and other business is roughly flat, and a lot of that is driven by trends that we're seeing in media. We had a very tough compare this year in terms of media, in terms of the gaming sector.

We have a number of large renewals in the first half of the year. We've got some industry consolidation that's really adding to the impact of some of those renewals and a lot of these deals are -- were put in place about 18 to 24 months. So I'd say that's really normal things that you see in the media and entertainment space. As far as the Web Division, we are continuing to see a little bit of pressure here in the commerce space, as talked about in the past.

And that's really what's adding to the flattening of our CD and other business. We do expect to see that return to growth in 2020 as we expect to see a significant uptick in our media business going to 2020.

Colby Synesael -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from Charlie Erlikh with Baird. Your line is now open.

Charlie Erlikh -- Robert W. Baird and Company -- Analyst

Great. Thanks. I wanted to ask a question about the enterprise security products. Specifically, in the past just compare those enterprise -- or I guess, the enterprise business to what the security business was in its early days, and I just wanted to ask, I guess, how the enterprise business has been doing so far relative to those expectations.

So I guess, the question is how is the adoption, the bookings, and the overall interest been relative to your initial expectations for that enterprise business?

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Doing very well. Obviously, early days but we had very strong bookings this year, up substantially over 2017. And so -- and we're anticipating even stronger bookings next year. So I would say we're very pleased with the progress in enterprise security.

I think in the long run, it should be a bigger business than the web security business. You think about enterprises, more of them -- almost all of them, in fact, care about enterprise security and only really certain verticals are focused on web security, which is our current product set. And the amount of money that enterprises spend today on firewalls and trying to prevent data breaches is much greater than what companies will spend on securing a website. So I think the market's bigger and I think we're really at the cusp of a major change in how enterprises secure themselves.

the notion of zero-trust, everybody is talking about that now. Take years for enterprises really to fully make the transition but they -- their first customers now are embracing that and adopting zero-trust solutions. So, I think a very exciting future.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from the line of Sterling Auty with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.

Sterling Auty -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Yes, thanks. Hi, guys. First, Jim, congratulations on completing a great tenure as CFO and, Ed, congratulations on your promotion.

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Thank you.

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sterling.

Sterling Auty -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

And then in terms of -- you talked about the different detail around the growth dynamics into 2019. I think that's very helpful, but you did mention in the prepared remarks, especially the OTT strength and with preparation some of the launches that have gone on, what are you seeing in terms of the uptake there? And is the pricing in those opportunities different than what you've seen in traditional media delivery?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Yes. So a couple of things there. I'll start with the back -- the last part of the question around pricing. Really pricing in the media space is really driven by volume.

So, there's really no difference in terms of the high volume of T customer or high volume software download customer. We do tend to get additional value on our OTT space from security sales and professional services, etc. But in terms of the traffic expectations,as we look at the -- our guidance, we take a look at the customers that we have today. And we've got pretty good trends and track record in terms of understanding how their businesses grow.

As we look out, I talked a little bit about some of the launches that may be coming at the back half of '19 and '20, we tend to take a bit of a conservative approach there for a variety of reasons. Many of the things that go into an OTT launch that will impact us really revolve around traffic growth. And there's a lot to think about in terms of the exact date of the launch, sometimes launches can be moved. There's very complex technology and workflows that are involved.

So, sometimes customers want to launch them either in a limited fashion. It's really not until it gets to be a service that is a market that we really get a good handle in terms of what we expect in terms of volumes. Also other things that impacted is the service of paid subscription services at ad supported what is the user adoption, what's our share of traffic, what's the engagement time of the user, what's the bit rate. So, as we look at 2019, any of these OTT offers that are coming in the back half of the year are very conservative in terms of the adoption rate, the impact on Akamai.

Sterling Auty -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. All right. That makes sense to me. And then one follow-up would be you gave the 28% operating income margin guide for 2019.

I want to make sure I'm thinking about this the right way. What would that guidance have been under the old depreciation rules in terms of the four years instead of five years?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Yes. So, I said it's about a $24 million impact, so it's a little less than a point. Oh, and --

Sterling Auty -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. So, somewhere in the low --

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Yes, keep in mind also that I mentioned that we're taking on Janrain as well, so included in the guidance was the impact of Janrain. So, you'd have to add that back in. So, if you those two things, roughly net each other out.

Sterling Auty -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

OK. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Keith Weiss -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Excellent. Thank you, guys, for taking the question and a nice quarter. Two questions from me. One, just more broadly, I think this is a question for Ed.

Can you kind of walk us through, again, sign of where you guys get the confidence to sort of do this for accelerating growth into 2020? And it gives -- I mean, forecasting is top or so, saying, two years is really tough. But what are the kind of like mechanical things that [Inaudible] so you can see better growth into 2020? And then one -- this is probably more for Tom. How do you -- entering 2019, how do you feel about sort of your sales force's ability to sell outside of your traditional customer? I mean, like the selling point within a customer, going from the guy who's traditionally in charge of the website, to now selling directly to a CSO or just selling to other guys within the organization, who hasn't traditionally been the sweet spot for Akamai?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Sure. So I'll take the 2020, the confidence there. So one thing to think about, we'll talk about media first and I'll get into web in a second. If you think about media, there is a odd year/even year phenomenon.

And I talked about in the prepared remarks that 2020 will have additional events for us that we won't see in '19. And one of the reasons why our growth rate is a little bit lower in the media business this year is the fact that we did have some large events in 2018. That's one thing. The other thing I mentioned was the -- some of the big renewals that are coming up, and I touched a bit on the consolidation in the industry.

There's been some very, very big consolidation and there you're taking I'll be a bit more of a of a decline in terms of your or your prices due to the fact that you've got no additional volume that's added when you put the two companies together. And also there are a number of services. For example, two companies might have professional services, engagements, and whittle that down to one, etc., but these things are very temporary. And what we see is you see a decline in the business.

And then as traffic ramps, you see revenue grow again, so that's one thing. The other thing is that we've seen significant security growth in both of our verticals. But sticking with media, we made a change back in the beginning of the year and our compensation plans and we saw a significant increase in our revenue from security and there's still a tremendous amount of whitespace there to go. And then in terms of the OTT offerings I talked about, if you look at some of the the offerings that are coming to market, while I talked about -- a bit about being a little bit more cautious and '19 and 2020, we feel that those offerings will start to take take hold in the market and we believe we're positioned very well to do so.

And part of that is addressing some of these concerns around consolidation and being -- taking on -- playing a long game in terms of being a partner and helping with some of the synergies on the cost side. On the web side, there's a number of go-to-market initiatives that we put in place. We're starting to see some pretty good traction in terms of our new customer efforts that we've put in place in 2018. We're seeing significant growth in -- outside the U.S.

both in APJ and EMEA. We're also seeing some pretty good growth in APJ in media as well. And then just security in general, within the Web Division, still a lot of whitespace to go and then we're very optimistic about the customer identity, access management, and demand that we expect to see there as well as an uptick in our enterprise security products. So all of that together gives us the confidence to feel that we'll see an acceleration in 2014.

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

And on your question about selling the security solutions, we've made a lot of progress there. Pretty much all the sales force is expected to be able to sell security solutions, and they're doing that, with the Kona sales, the CSO, with the security organization pretty much always involved there even though that's sold to -- for the website. With the Bot Manager product and being all about fraud prevention there, that's the security organization typically heavily engaged with that. [Inaudible], that's a data center a protection level sale, really nothing to do with the website, per say.

It protects all the assets in the data center. So, there we're dealing with the data center networking, security side of the house. We're putting a lot of effort in our marketing, to get better known as a security company. Our -- this year -- past year, we hired a new global head of web sales, Scott Lovett, who's well-known as a security expert.

In fact, the large majority of our new customer bookings are led by security now. So, I would say we're we're doing very well and making the transition in terms of a sales force that sells CDN to a sales force that sells security. Now the zero-trust solutions is the next step in that direction, and we're off to a good start there.

Keith Weiss -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Thanks a lot. That sounds great. Thanks a lot, guys.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from the line of Brandon Nispel with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Brandon Nispel -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great. Thank you. Thanks for taking the question. I'm going to ask a growth question again.

So you mentioned the CM business will be flat in 2019 but return to growth in 2020 due to big events. What do you think is the sort of two-year stack growth rate and what's sustainable in that business over a multi-year time span? That's one and two, just to be clear, I guess, more of a housekeeping. Does your guidance embed pricing declines from some of the consolidation that's going on? Thanks.

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Sure. I'll take the last question. This is Ed. I'll take the last question first.

Yes, we did embed the expected pricing declines in our guidance. In terms of the core CDN business, if you look at our core CDN business, excluding the giants because the giant can sometimes skew some of the results, it grew at about 4% in '17 and above 4% in '18. We're calling for roughly a flat year here as we go through some of the items that I talked about, and then a return to growth. So I think looking at that trend, low single digits is probably the right way to think about that business.

I think one of the things that Jim pointed out, some of the cost initiatives that are going on in that business is it's a very profitable business for us and it's something that we're going to continue to optimize as we go forward. And really in terms of the next leg up in growth, OTT, once that becomes a significant portion of users' viewing time, that should -- you should see that begin to accelerate.

Brandon Nispel -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from Michael Turits with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Hey, guys. Good evening. Thanks for taking my question. Jim, of course, congratulations to you and a privilege working with you.

And, Ed, welcome to the slot and congratulations as well.

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Two questions, one on CDN, one on security. First of all, CDN, in terms that flattish growth for 2019, is that any different in terms of the growth expectation for the media delivery piece as opposed to the web performance piece within the CDN segment?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Yes, so it's roughly the same, Michael, in terms of [Inaudible]

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

OK. So about flat for both.

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Give or take a percent a point or two.

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Right. So, it sounds like that's maybe a slightly an improvement maybe in performance stabilizing a bit?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

I would say it's more stabilizing a bit.

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Right. And then my next question is this is on security. So, security has been great. As you pointed out, it's about a $750 million run rate, and you're looking to get it to $1 billion by 2020.

But I think it's probably been mostly [Inaudible] and DDoS up to this point. The combined market for those two is only about $2 billion, so it seems as if you're going to get the $1 billion yourself, unlikely to be 50% of that market. So you must be anticipating a really good company contribution outside of [Inaudible] and DDoS. Could you give us some sense for how big you think the non-[Inaudible] and DDoS piece of your security business could be by 2020?

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

I think the vast majority of it will be [Inaudible] and DDoS in 2020. We do command a very strong share because we have really unique capabilities there in the market. Now that said, over the longer term, we're looking for the non-[Inaudible] items, particularly enterprise security, zero-trust, to drive a lot of growth. We also get -- smaller contributions would be from Nominum with their enterprise security solutions that we sell actually to carriers and they provide it as a channel.

And there's smaller pieces here and there with fast DNS, but the vast majority is [Inaudible] and DDoS, and I think it'll take a little bit of time for the other pieces really and which will be led by enterprise security and the zero-trust solutions to be a big share of that. I would count Bot Manager as part of [Inaudible] when I'm thinking -- when I say Bot Manager, that's part of [Inaudible] because that's a very fast-growing product and that's a pretty good share of what we'll see in 2020.

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Great, Tom. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will come from of Robert Gutman with Guggenheim. Your line is now open.

Robert Gutman -- Guggenheim Securities -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I was just wondering in the non-GAAP operating margin guidance for the year, is there anything else that's one time, holding that back besides the depreciation in January and anything related to headquarters or is that all in CAPEX?

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Yes, so as I mentioned, in Q3, we'll start to see the rent expense hits in Q3 associated with the new headquarters building. Other than that, there's really no onetime item in and then, obviously, as I mentioned, the limelight patent royalty going away in Q3. But other than that there's really no other onetime items but Janrain is also something that you need to take to -- keep into consideration as well in that operating margin guidance.

Robert Gutman -- Guggenheim Securities -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. And our next question will come from Mark Mahaney with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Hey, I want to follow up on some of the -- the two of the OTT questions. Could you at least ring fence the opportunity in OTT for Akamai in kind of leaving aside the timing, how much of an incremental opportunity you see this? Some of the launches are relatively well-publicized as to who hopes to launch in OTT service but just maybe not talking specifically about customers but are there any of those potential launches that are clear opportunities for you or some that just aren't because you don't -- you've never worked with that company? Just ring fence the opportunity both on the low side and high side in 2020 and 2021. Thank you.

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Without talking about timing, we worked with all the companies that have been rumored to have OTT offers. And Ed talked about before, it's really hard to predict timing, scale, success, adoption, and those kinds of things. So we tend to take a pretty conservative view there in terms of our guidance.

I think if you look longer term in what could be on a global basis for OTT, there's tremendous opportunity for growth. If you get to the point where the majority of TV or video watching is done online, which a lot of people think will happen, and it's done a high quality say at least 10 megabits per second, there's the opportunity for orders of magnitude of increased traffic. Now timing on that is really hard to predict. As you know, there's a couple of companies that either do it all themselves, and so we don't participate in their revenue.

But for the large majority of the OTT providers, those that are setting up new services both here and globally, we have very good relationships and are in a position to benefit.

Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

OK. Thank you.

Tom Barth -- Head of Investor Relations

Operator, we have for probably one more question.

Operator

Yes, sir. Our last question will come from the line of Sameet Sinha with B. Riley FBR. Your line is now open.

Sameet Sinha -- B. Riley FBR--Analyst

Yes, thank you very much. And, Jim and Ed, congratulations on your next steps. A couple of questions here. So some nice leverage on the R&D line in the fourth quarter, can you speak to that specifically what exactly is going on? Obviously, that division has probably been impacted somewhat by the consultant's recommendations and other sort of efficiency initiatives that you have.

Secondly, if you can just talk about the the churn rate. This is the second quarter in a row where you mentioned that churn rate has gone down. Can you specifically address what are some of the key initiatives that you've taken to make sure that this means a continued dynamic? Thank you.

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

Yes, on the R&D leverage, I mean, as I outlined earlier that the bigger source of leverage for the company margin expansion is really going to come from G&A, sales and marketing to some extent, and also some network costs. We did see a little bit of leverage in R&D. As you know, we capitalized a fair amount of our R&D spend for new innovation. And you should you view that as good because that effectively means that new product innovation that's being incubated.

We saw a bit of an uptick on that from Q3, Q4 and our kind of capitalization activity, which has a benefit in your operating expenses. But I think by and large, we expect our R&D spend and as percent of revenue to be roughly flat over the next couple of years because we don't want to under-invest in a critical area to drive growth for the company.

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes. And in terms of the churn rate, that's all about making the customer happy, providing great performance. We have great professional services, our people are really great, and the customers like that. Innovative new products, our customers want to see a roadmap and investment and innovation to help them stay ahead of the game.

A low rate of service incidents, things that go wrong. And we listen to our customers and engage with them and provide them the level of service that they're looking for. So in general, our customers are very, very happy with Akamai and that's directly reflected in a very low churn rate and we are very pleased to see it decrease further in Q4 and 2018.

Sameet Sinha -- B. Riley FBR--Analyst

Great. Thank you very much.

Tom Barth -- Head of Investor Relations

Well, thank you. In closing, we'll be presenting at several investor conferences throughout the remainder of the quarter. Details of these can be found in the Investor Relations section of akamai.com, and we thank you for joining us and wish you a very nice evening.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 67 minutes

Call Participants:

Tom Barth -- Head of Investor Relations

Tom Leighton -- Chief Executive Officer

Jim Benson -- Chief Financial Officer

Ed McGowan -- Senior Vice President of Finance

James Breen -- William Blair and Company -- Analyst

Brad Zelnick -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Tim Horton -- Oppenheimer Holdings -- Analyst

Colby Synesael -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Charlie Erlikh -- Robert W. Baird and Company -- Analyst

Sterling Auty -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Keith Weiss -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Brandon Nispel -- KeyBanc Capital Markets -- Analyst

Michael Turits -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Robert Gutman -- Guggenheim Securities -- Analyst

Mark Mahaney -- RBC Capital Markets -- Analyst

Sameet Sinha -- B. Riley FBR--Analyst

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