Mortgage Rate Trend Index: Aug. 29, 2013
Will rates go up, down or remain unchanged?
Introduction Will rates rise or remain relatively unchanged? Experts and Bankrate analysts predict where mortgage rates are headed over the next week.
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This week (Aug. 29-Sept. 4), 18% of the panelists believe mortgage rates will rise over the next week or so, 36% think rates will fall, and 46% believe rates will remain relatively unchanged (plus or minus 2 basis points).
Click on the three tabs above to read the comments and rate predictions of mortgage experts and Bankrate analysts.
About the Bankrate.com Rate Trend Index Bankrate.com surveys experts in the mortgage field to see if they believe mortgage rates will rise, fall or remain relatively unchanged. The panel is comprised of mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers and other industry experts who provide residential first mortgages to consumers. Results from Bankrate.com's Mortgage Rate Trend Index will be released each Thursday.
Up 18%
Derek Egeberg Branch manager, Academy Mortgage, Yuma, Ariz. The market is beginning to weaken with the revised housing purchase data going downward.
Holden Lewis Assistant managing editor, Bankrate.com Mortgage rates are trending upward. They might go down from one week to the next, but the trend is up, and if you're betting money, it's best to assume that they'll rise over the next week because that's the long-term trend. (If you're choosing whether to lock or not, you're betting money.)
Down 36%
Polyana da Costa Senior mortgage reporter, Bankrate.com Tension in the Middle East will make investors seek safety in U.S. mortgage and Treasury bonds. Increased demand for bonds should help keep a lid on mortgage rates for now.
Dan Green Waterstone Mortgage, author of TheMortgageReports.com, Cincinnati Sentiment shifts on weaker-than-expected housing data. Mortgage rates ease.
Dick Lepre Senior loan officer, RPM Mortgage, San Francisco The daily and weekly techs are both upcrossed to bullish (higher prices, lower yields), so we should get that 15-day dip in rates we have been waiting for.
Greg McBride, CFA Senior financial analyst, Bankrate.com Disappointing economic data and nervousness about Syria has markets on edge, which has been favorable for mortgage rates.
Unchanged 46%
Michael Becker Mortgage banker, WCS Funding Group, Baltimore After a small drop in Treasury yields and mortgage rates over the last few days, I think mortgage rates will be rangebound over the next week until next Friday's employment report. That report could have a major effect on mortgage rates.
Barry Habib Vice president and chief market strategist, Residential Finance Corporation, Marlboro, N.J. There are many adverse factors for mortgage rates. Technical indicators, taper talk, and likely stronger employment data all point to higher rates. But a U.S. military strike against Syria is a wild card that can temporarily help bonds and lower rates.
Bob Moulton President, Americana Mortgage Group, Manhasset, N.Y. Rates are flat.
Jim Sahnger Mortgage planner, FBC Mortgage, Jupiter, Fla. We got a little break this week as I expected that we would. Next week is a big week for data. We will likely end up where we started, but risk remains to go higher in anticipation of unfavorable bonds data and more tapering talk.
John Walsh President, Total Mortgage Services, Milford, Conn. I believe that rates will hold steady on average in the coming week, but that there will continue to be significant day-to-day volatility due to recent mixed economic data and continued uncertainty about the timing of (quantitative easing)-tapering.