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In the next quarter Nomura also sees also Apple Inc overtaking Nokia, pushing the Finnish company to No. 3 in the rankings.
"Nokia looks set to relinquish its smartphone crown to Samsung and Apple," Nomura analysts said in a research note. "Further emphasising the shift in power to Asia is our forecast for HTC to almost match Nokia during 2012."
Research firms Gartner and Canalys both said they saw Nokia -- which created the smartphone market with its 1996 launch of the Communicator model -- losing smartphone volume leadership later this year.
"If Nokia's new phones are not well received in the third quarter and (with) the Galaxy S2 ramping up, Samsung might overtake them and become the smartphone leader in Q3," said Gartner analyst Carolina Milanesi.
Overall, Nokia still makes more cellphones than Samsung due to its strong position in basic cellphones and its wider distribution network in emerging countries.
The company is switching to Microsoft Corp's software from its own Symbian platform as part of an overhaul of its phone business set out in February by new Chief Executive Stephen Elop.
On May 31 Nokia abandoned hope of meeting key targets just weeks after setting them, raising questions over whether its new boss can deliver on the turnaround he promised.
Shares in Nokia were 0.6 percent firmer at 4.33 euros by 0934 GMT, in line with a slightly stronger technology sector. (Editing by David Holmes)