Get ready for recession 2020! Leading economist says one is 'highly probable'

During President Trump's impromptu news conference on Tuesday, the president said he is "always thinking" of a payroll tax cut, but it was the first time the public had heard of it from him.

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"I think it's always prudent to sort of hedge yourself against a recession, and I am worried about the snowballing effect of what we're seeing abroad in both trade tensions, trade war, the uncertainty tax we're facing in becoming a recession in 2020," Diane Swonk, Grant Thornton chief economist, told FOX Business' Liz Claman on "The Claman Countdown." "I think [a recession] is highly probable. I do have a recession in 2020."

I do have a recession in 2020.

- Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk

She's concerned a variety of factors will contribute to a possible recession, including Brexit as well as Japan's trade war with South Korea.

"These things take a toll on the overall size of the global economic pie, and as long as a storm is going on abroad, you worry about what will wash up on our shores and how we'll weather those shifts," Swonk said. "And I worry we don't have all the tools necessary when the economy falters and the ship goes down to right the ship."

She said right now, the American consumer has been bearing the brunt of the U.S. economy.

"Something's gotta give," Swonk said. "Either we've got to see business stuck with more conviction instead of caution and place more bets on the future and ramp up hiring and wages, or the U.S. consumer is going to not going to be able to shoulder that burden anymore. You're going to see a weakness in payrolls."

Something's gotta give.

- Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk

Swonk reiterated that she hopes the United States avoids that recession and "stop some of the policies we're doing to get there."


She mentioned how a recession can have an "indiscriminate carnage" on a country's population.