Thru the Cycle President John Lonski reacted to June’s better-than-expected jobs report, Friday, telling "Mornings with Maria" that he's "never heard" of a recession when an economy is growing payrolls by more than 300,000 jobs per month.
JOHN LONSKI: I think it's much better than anticipated. I'd like the fact that the gain in jobs was broadly distributed. Even if we take into account those downward revisions that David spoke about, we're still looking at an overall gain, say, of 300,000 jobs. Healthy. Along with this, we have just a modest increase by the average wage telling me that perhaps we ought not to get terribly worried about a wage price spiral, bringing about a more difficult task of trying to eliminate price inflation.
Now, of course, this brings us back to the point where wages are lagging inflation, the purchasing power of incomes is declining, and that will eventually take its toll of consumer spending. And that is where we run into a recession. As far as a recession is concerned, I've never heard of a recession where you're growing payrolls by more than 300,000 jobs per month. So this report has the effect of reducing recession risk, and that explains why that ten year Treasury yield is headed higher.
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