Economists see no end to US-China trade war: Poll

Economists polled by Reuters are expecting the U.S.-China trade war will worsen or, at best, relations will stay the same in the near term.

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Close to 80 percent of the economists said they didn’t expect any improvement in relations between the two countries by the end of next year, Reuters reported. They’re lacking optimism about the trade situation as more tariffs are scheduled to take effect in October and December.

There’s been plenty of talk lately about when the U.S. should expect a recession to hit. Even with the trade war, most of the polled economists don't see it happening in the near term. They put the median odds of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months remained at 30 percent and at 45 percent for the next 24 months, according to the report.

President Trump has been calling for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to zero or lower, complaining in a tweet this week about the “boneheads” at the central bank for not cutting rates to stimulate economic growth.

The poll found 85 percent of the economists are expecting the Fed “should” cut rates next week.

But will it happen? A similar number of economists expected a rate cut at the Fed’s last meeting, according to the report. There was no cut.

The president may still be disappointed, as close to 80 percent of respondents said they expected the Fed wouldn’t be influenced by his criticism. They’re only expecting a quarter-point cut.

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