4Q GDP estimate delayed until Feb. 28 because of government shutdown
The highly-anticipated release of the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) estimate will be delayed by almost a month as a result of the 35-day partial government shutdown.
On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirmed the GDP will not be released until Feb. 28 -- long after the previously scheduled date of Jan. 30. The Feb. 28 report will contain one set of GDP numbers based on the data available from the BEA’s data suppliers, the agency said, including some source data that would have gone into producing its advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, as well as its second estimate of the number.
The BEA generally provides three estimates of the GDP for each quarter; however, they will only provide two readings this quarter. The final reading remains on track for March 28.
The agency reopened at the end of January and was consulting with the U.S. Census Bureau to evaluate the availability of the thousands of data series used to produce the economic indicators.
While it’s not an official forecast, GDPNow, a real-time tracker monitored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, is estimating fourth-quarter growth of 2.7 percent, as of Wednesday. That estimate is the same as it was on Dec. 21, the day before the shutdown began.
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Although the shutdown will likely have a minimal effect on the fourth-quarter 2018 GDP, it could leave a mark on the first-quarter 2019 GDP. The Trump administration said in the middle of January that the shutdown was costing it about 0.13 percentage points per week.