Projected, actual enrollment for Medicaid expansion states

This table contains projected and actual enrollment figures for the newly eligible Medicaid population in the 30 states and the District of Columbia that have opted to expand the program under the federal Affordable Care Act. Where available, it also provides the estimated and revised cost of paying for the program during the 2017 fiscal year, when states will begin paying a share of the Medicaid expansion. The state share will rise to 10 percent in the 2020 fiscal year.

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Associated Press reporters in every state compiled the information from various state agencies (FY=fiscal year; CY=calendar year).

MEDICAID EXPANSION STATE NEWLY ELIGIBLE PROJECTED ENROLLMENT NEWLY ELIGIBLE ACTUAL ENROLLMENT NEWLY ELIGIBLE STATE COST ESTIMATE FY2017 (ORIGINAL) NEWLY ELIGIBLE STATE COST ESTIMATE FY2017 (REVISED) ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Alaska FY2016:40,000 eligible; 20,000 would enroll N/A $5.2 million N/A Gov. Bill Walker said last week that Alaska would expand Medicaid.
Arizona FY2015: 279,778 FY2015: 347,000 $163.4 million $234.8 million Arizona had partially expanded Medicaid prior to ACA implementation, although that program was put on hold during the recession. These figures include the initial expansion group and newly eligible population. Most of the growth is concentrated in the initial expansion group, which restarted in 2014.
Arkansas All years: 250,000 new enrollees FY2014: 195,783 new enrollees $107.8 million for new enrollees $43 million for new enrollees Arkansas' Medicaid expansion operates differently than in most states. Under what it calls a "private option," the state uses federal money to buy private insurance for low-income residents. It was crafted as an alternative to the Medicaid expansion envisioned under the federal health law. The figures here include the newly eligible and those previously eligible but not enrolled.
California FY2015: 800,257 As of May 2015: 2.3 million Up to $257 million $367.4 million The Legislature will meet in a special session later this summer, in part to discuss funding for the program, which is called Medi-Cal. Five years ago, the program accounted for 14 percent of California's general fund. Today, Medi-Cal consumes 16 percent.
Colorado FY2015:232,400 FY2015:312,682 Not available $38.2 million Under a plan passed by lawmakers, a hospital provider fee will be used to cover state costs in the 2017 fiscal year. Officials said a comparable cost estimate was not available because expansion was implemented in stages.
Connecticut Not available April 2015:38,195 new enrollees Not available Not available Connecticut officials said about 45,000 childless adults in 2010 were moved off a program that provided health coverage funded entirely by the state. Enrollment count is just for April and includes those previously eligible.
Delaware CY2014: 71,645 new enrollees CY2014: 52,431 new enrollees $57 million (CY) $56.5 million (CY) Delaware was among states that had partially expanded Medicaid prior to ACA implementation. Figures include the initial expansion group and the newly eligible population.
District of Columbia Not available April 2015:11,932 new enrollees Not available Not available The District of Columbia had previously expanded Medicaid. District officials say they do not do enrollment and cost projections. Enrollment count is just for April and includes those previously eligible.
Hawaii Oct. 1, 2013-Oct, 1 2014: 45,000 new enrollees Oct. 1, 2013-Oct, 1 2014: 18,188 new enrollees Not provided Not provided Enrollment was lower than projected in the first year due partly to technical problems related to ACA implementation. The state department that handles Medicaid did not provide cost estimates.
Illinois CY2015: 298,000 FY2015: 623,000 $98.8 million $54.1 million (plus an additional $18.8 million paid by Cook County directly as part of an intergovernmental agreement). The costs of the newly eligible population in Cook County, which includes Chicago, were included in the initial cost estimate but not in the current one. Cook County is included in the enrollment numbers.
Indiana CY2015: 247,000 As of July 14, 2015: 186,000 Not available Not available Indiana obtained a federal waiver to expand its Healthy Indiana Plan as an alternative to Medicaid expansion. State costs for the overall program are expected to reach $185 million in FY2017.
Iowa All years: 150,000 FY2015: 133,056 Not provided $24 million Iowa obtained a federal waiver to create its Iowa Health and Wellness Plan as an alternative to Medicaid expansion.
Kentucky FY2014: 147,634 FY2014: 310,887 $33 million $74 million
Maryland FY2015: 164,724 FY2015: 220,442 $30.9 million $53.6 million Maryland officials said about 100,000 residents were moved off a program that previously provided limited health coverage funded entirely by the state.
Massachusetts Not available Not available Not available Not available Massachusetts had previously expanded Medicaid. Efforts to identify enrollment and cost projections were unsuccessful.
Michigan CY2014: 323,000 CY2014: 506,000 $100 million $150 million
Minnesota FY2014:105,367 monthly average eligibles FY2014:121,353 monthly average eligibles $42.3 million $57.96 million Minnesota officials said residents were moved off a program that previously provided health care for childless adults paid for with a mix of state and federal money.
Montana All years: 70,000 to 80,000 eligible; 45,000 would enroll over next four years N/A $5.1 million N/A The Montana Legislature decided this year to expand its Medicaid program, but its waiver is still pending federal approval.
Nevada May 2015: 144,340 May 2015: 181,051 $8.5 million $22.6 million
New Hampshire FY2015: 34,000 new enrollees FY2015: 41,018 new enrollees $9 million for new enrollees $12 million for new enrollees Figures include the newly eligible and those previously eligible but not enrolled.
New Jersey All years: 234,000 As of May 2015: 382,746 Not provided $162 million Efforts to identify an initial cost projection were unsuccessful.
New Mexico CY2014: 133,386 CY2014: 191,133 $35.5 million $43.3 million
New York As of June 2015: 78,953 CY2014: 144,058 $15.7 million Not available New York was among states that had partially expanded Medicaid before the ACA implementation. It only had to raise the income threshold for childless adults. State officials say they have yet to do an update on costs.
North Dakota All years: 20,500 CY2014: 16,727 $2.9 million $8.2 million State officials say actual costs proved higher than projections.
Ohio June 2015: 366,000 As of May 2015: 537,010 $55.5 million $130 million
Oregon FY2015: 222,700 FY2015: 386,000 $45 million $63 million
Pennsylvania All years: 600,000 As of July 17, 2015: About 423,000 Not available Not available Pennsylvania's expansion began Jan. 1 of this year. Efforts to identify cost projections were unsuccessful.
Rhode Island First year of expansion: 51,000 CY2014: 55,684 $13.6 million $12.4 million
Vermont FY2014: 34,490 average monthly eligibles FY2014: 47,315 average monthly eligibles Not available Not available Vermont had previously expanded Medicaid, so these figures represent people who were previously eligible under the state plan. Officials say state costs will be greatly reduced as the federal government pays a larger share compared to the state plan in effect before the Affordable Care Act.
Washington CY2014: 244,667 CY2014: 510,691 $78.4 million $76.5 million State officials attributed the difference between estimated and current costs to "minor adjustments" and not a significant revision. It was not immediately clear why costs declined slightly from projections even though enrollment was more than double the estimate.
West Virginia FY2015: 78,500 FY2015: 159,000 $18.5 million Under revision State officials say actual costs are expected to meet projections due to lower-than-expected individual costs.