Coffee Falls After Brazilian Export Data

By FeaturesDow Jones Newswires

Coffee extended recent declines Tuesday despite data showing Brazilian coffee exports fell in December from a year earlier, according to exporters group Cecafe.

Arabica coffee for March delivery fell 1.5% to $1.2045 a pound on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. Prices have fallen steadily since crossing $1.30 earlier this month.

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The market still largely expects steady coffee supplies despite the recent data from one of the world's largest producers, according to Nicholas Gentile, managing partner at NickJen Capital Management.

"I just think this is basically technical selling that we're seeing here" based on chart trends, he said. "The fundamentals are more neutral right now on coffee. This could be a fair price right now unless we have a strong La Niña and get really dry weather to put some stress on the crop."

Mr. Gentile said he expects range-bound trading moving forward, adding that he would sit on the sidelines and wait for the market to get oversold before taking a different position.

Analysts will be keeping an eye on possible weather disruptions to soft commodities, and look to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data for the latest information on speculative positioning. Friday's data showed speculators reduced their short positions in coffee during the week ended Jan. 9, and some have said investors covering their short positions have spurred price gains in some commodities in recent weeks.

"We're oversupplied in all of these markets right now," Mr. Gentile said. "The markets have short positions, which could set off some fireworks" if there is an unexpected supply shock, he said.

In other markets, March raw sugar shed 4.2% to 13.59 cents a pound, March cocoa was up 0.9% at $1,932 a ton, March frozen-concentrated orange juice advanced 3.1% to $1.4040 a pound and March cotton lost 0.3% to 81.43 cents a pound.

-Jeffrey T. Lewis contributed to this article.

Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 16, 2018 15:15 ET (20:15 GMT)

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