Oil Prices Mixed Amid Tensions in Iraq

By Neanda Salvaterra Features Dow Jones Newswires

Oil prices fluctuated Monday amid concerns about the potential for supply disruptions resulting from tensions in the oil-rich Kurdish region of Iraq.

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Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.1% to $57.70 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 0.5% at $52.12 a barrel.

Since a nonbinding Kurdish vote for independence, Iraq's central government and the region's neighbors in Iran and Turkey have moved aggressively, shutting down borders and flights.

Iraqi forces retook the oil-rich Kirkuk area, throwing into question Kurdistan's ability to export oil through Turkey and raising doubts about investments from big oil companies such as Chevron Corp.

Iraq, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, also reported that oil exports in the south have been increased by 200,000 barrels a day to make up for the shortfall from Kirkuk.

"There is spare capacity in the U.S. and in OPEC nations that makes it difficult for Brent to go above $60, so it is stuck in a relatively small range," said Olivier Jakob, managing director at oil consultancy Petromatrix. "Over the weekend, Iraq announced that it would increase output from the south to offset losses from the north. That's an illustration of what the market can do when it has spare capacity."

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Earlier, oil prices rose slightly from Friday, boosted by data from Baker Hughes Inc. showing a third-straight decline in the number of active oil rigs, a proxy for drilling activity.

Still, analysts point to data showing that U.S. shale oil producers are poised to bring more crude online, which will weigh on oil prices.

"The oil market still remains deaf in one ear and is responding primarily to price-supportive news," said Commerzbank in a recent note. "The prices of both oil types, and especially of Brent, are overheated and [we] expect them to correct in the short term."

Since OPEC and 10 other non-OPEC countries struck an agreement to cut global production by 1.8 million a barrels a day last year, U.S. producers drilled a total of 7,270 uncompleted wells up until September.

"There has been a veritable shale oil drilling party," Mr. Jakob of Petromatrix said. "Thus if 2017 was a U.S. shale oil drilling party then 2018 may be a shale oil completion party. U.S. shale oil completions have been rising every month since January," he said.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock--the benchmark gasoline contract--rose 0.50% to $1.69 a gallon. ICE gasoil changed hands at $534.75 a metric ton, up $1.75 from the previous settlement.

Write to Neanda Salvaterra at neanda.salvaterra@wsj.com

Oil prices fluctuated Monday as investors tried to gauge the potential for supply disruptions resulting from tensions in the oil-rich Kurdish region of Iraq.

U.S. crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.23%, to $51.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 13 cents, or 0.23%, to $57.62 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe.

Donald Morton, senior vice president at Herbert J. Sims & Co. who oversees an energy trading desk, said there is uncertainty about how much Kurdish oil production has been disrupted

"There's anxiety over what is really being pumped," he said. Still, he said oil prices are "way up at the high end of the trading range" where they have stagnated.

Since a nonbinding Kurdish vote for independence, Iraq's central government and the region's neighbors in Iran and Turkey have moved aggressively, shutting down borders and flights.

Iraqi forces retook the oil-rich Kirkuk area, throwing into question Kurdistan's ability to export oil through Turkey and raising doubts about investments from big oil companies such as Chevron Corp.

Iraq, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, also reported that oil exports in the south were increased by 200,000 barrels a day to make up for the shortfall from Kirkuk.

"There is spare capacity in the U.S. and in OPEC nations that makes it difficult for Brent to go above $60, so it is stuck in a relatively small range," said Olivier Jakob, managing director at oil consultancy Petromatrix. "Over the weekend, Iraq announced that it would increase output from the south to offset losses from the north. That's an illustration of what the market can do when it has spare capacity."

Earlier, oil prices rose slightly from Friday, boosted by data from Baker Hughes Inc. showing a third-straight decline in the number of active oil rigs, a proxy for drilling activity.

Still, analysts point to data showing that U.S. shale oil producers are poised to bring more crude online, which will weigh on oil prices.

"The oil market still remains deaf in one ear and is responding primarily to price-supportive news," said Commerzbank in a recent note. "The prices of both oil types, and especially of Brent, are overheated and [we] expect them to correct in the short term."

Since OPEC and 10 other non-OPEC countries struck an agreement to cut global production by 1.8 million a barrels a day last year, U.S. producers drilled a total of 7,270 uncompleted wells to September.

"There has been a veritable shale oil drilling party," Mr. Jakob of Petromatrix said. "Thus if 2017 was a U.S. shale oil drilling party then 2018 may be a shale oil completion party. U.S. shale oil completions have been rising every month since January," he said.

Gasoline futures fell 0.16 cent, or 0.1%, to $1.6765 a gallon. Diesel futures fell 1.32 cents, or 0.73%, to $1.792 a gallon.

Write to Neanda Salvaterra at neanda.salvaterra@wsj.com and Alison Sider at alison.sider@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 23, 2017 11:40 ET (15:40 GMT)