Press Release: The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S. Declined in September

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The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S. Declined in September

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First Decline in a Year, Partly Due to Impact of Hurricanes

PR Newswire

NEW YORK, Oct. 19, 2017

NEW YORK, Oct. 19, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.2 percent in September to 128.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.

"The U.S. LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction, while the majority of the LEI components continued to contribute positively. Despite September's decline, the trend in the U.S. LEI remains consistent with continuing solid growth in the U.S. economy for the second half of the year."

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The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in September to 115.7 (2010 = 100), following no change in August, and a 0.1 percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index(R) (LAG) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in September to 125.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August and a 0.1 percent increase in July.

About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S.

The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component -- primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for the U.S. include:

Average weekly hours, manufacturing

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance

Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials

ISM(R) Index of New Orders

Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders

Building permits, new private housing units

Stock prices, 500 common stocks

Leading Credit Index(TM)

Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds

Average consumer expectations for business conditions

For full press release and technical notes:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1

For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators:

http://www.conference-board.org/data/bci.cfm

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD

The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org

Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes

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2017 6-month

Jul Aug Sep Mar to Sep

Leading Index 128.3 128.8 128.6 p

Percent Change 0.3 0.4 -0.2 p1.7

Diffusion 75.0 85.0 60.0 65.0

Coincident Index 115.6 r115.6 r115.7 p

Percent Change 0.1 r0.0 0.1 p0.7

Diffusion 75.0 50.0 87.5 100.0

Lagging Index 124.8 125.3 r125.2 p

Percent Change 0.1 r0.4 r-0.1 p1.1

Diffusion 42.9 71.4 57.1 57.1

p Preliminary r Revised

Indexes equal 100 in 2010

Source: The Conference Board

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SOURCE The Conference Board

/CONTACT: Carol Courter, 212-339-0232, courter@conference-board.org, or Joe DiBlasi, 781-308-7935, joseph.diblasi@conference-board.org

/Web site: http://www.conference-board.org

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 19, 2017 10:15 ET (14:15 GMT)