With the U.S. 2020 election months away, betting markets view President Trump’s reelection as the most likely outcome, however, some Democratic candidates have a better chance of unseating him, a new study shows.
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According to research from U.K.-based Standard Chartered, which analyzed online betting market data, it is latecomer businessman Michael Bloomberg that has the best chance of defeating President Trump should he secure the Democratic Party’s nomination.
However, his probability of securing the nomination is slightly more than 10 percent. Bloomberg is trailed by former Vice President Joe Biden.
And Bloomberg isn’t a top contender according to most polls. For example, a December Fox News poll found that Biden led the race with 30 percent, followed by Sanders with 20 percent. Bloomberg only had 5 percent.
Meanwhile, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg have low odds of defeating Trump, should they be nominated to represent the Democratic Party.
And while Bloomberg has the best chance of defeating Trump of all of the Democratic contenders, the odds of a Trump victory are still priced in at 55 percent to 60 percent.
So far, the study found, asset markets are not fazed by the election. Researchers posited that this could be because the two leading Democratic candidates with the best chance of defeating Trump — Bloomberg and Biden — are both perceived as relatively friendly to the market.
Additionally, odds favor a split Congress, which means a less market-friendly candidate would have a more difficult time implementing his or her policies.
The study noted, however, that it may be too early to tell what the market implications of the election would be. The nomination of a Democratic candidate that is perceived as less friendly to the markets could cause uncertainty to rise.
As previously reported by FOX Business, a bookmaking company that takes bets on political scenarios in Ireland and the U.K. also found that odds favor Trump’s reelection.
The overall odds for the Democratic nomination were as follows:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden has 9-4 odds to win the Democratic nomination
- Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., has 9-4 odds to win the Democratic nomination
- Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has 5-1 odds to win the Democratic nomination
- Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has 7-1 odds to win the Democratic nomination
- South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 9-1 odds to win the Democratic nomination